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Northwestern vs. Minnesota NCAAB Odds Analysis – Free Pick – January 23 – 2018

By Rich Crew
Date: 23/01/2018 9:00 pm
Location: Williams Arena
TV: N/A

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Minnesota -2
Total: 140.5

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (14-8) host the Northwestern Wildcats (12-9) in a Big 10 game at the Williams Arena in Minneapolis, Minnesota at 9:00 PM ET on January 23, 2018. Minnesota opened on some boards as high as a -3 favorite but has now settled in at -2 at most betting shops. The total has also had some downward movement after initially being offered at 140.5 linemakers have adjusted it to 139.5.

In their last game Northwestern hosted Penn State and they came away with a 70-61 victory. Vic Law was the high scorer for the Wildcats picking up 18 points on 5/12 shooting and he was one of four starters for the team that scored in double digits. Shep Garner was the high scorer for the Nittany Lions with 22 points on 7/13 shooting and he hit six of his 11 three-point attempts. Northwestern trailed at the half by two and came up big in the second outscoring Penn State by 11 points to pull away. The NWU had 16 offensive rebounds and shot 43.1% from the floor. PSU shot 51.2%, but ball control was their undoing committing 14 turnovers. The Wildcats covered the spread as a 3-point favorite and the 131 points amassed by the two clubs came in UNDER the total line of 137.5. Northwestern broke off a two-game losing streak against conference foes with the win lifting their record to 3-5 in Big 10 play. On the road they’re a poor 1-5 this season including 0-3 in conference games.

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Minnesota was at home in their last game where they lost to a very good ranked Ohio State team 67-49. Jordan Murphy was the high scorer for the Golden Gophers with 13 points on 5/11 shooting and while three other starters for the team went for double figures the bench was awful totaling three points. Keita Bates-Diop led the Buckeyes with 17 points and while he also had 12 rebounds he only shot 7/21 from the field and missed all six of his 3-pointers. Minnesota put up an embarrassing 18 points in the second half leading to the 18-point romp for OSU. For the game they shot 38.3% from the field and Ohio State shot 40.9%. The Golden Gophers failed to cover the spread as a 9-point underdog and the poor offensive performance by Minnesota sent this game well UNDER the 146.5 total. On the season, the Gophers are 3-6 in Big Ten games.

Northwestern ranks 219th in the nation in ppg and 58th in opponents’ ppg and Minnesota ranks 81st in ppg and 185th in opponents’ ppg.

These teams met at Northwestern on January 10th where the Wildcats beat the Golden Gophers 83-60.

This season Northwestern is 7-11 ATS with an O/U record of 6-12 and Minnesota is 9-12 ATS with an O/U record of 10-11.

SAGARIN RATINGS

Northwestern: 81.06
Minnesota: 79.54

INJURY REPORT

NORTHWESTERN

[F] 01/22/2018 – Charlie Hall is “?” Tuesday vs Minnesota U ( Undisclosed )
[F] 12/11/2017 – Rapolas Ivanauskas is out for season ( Shoulder )

MINNESOTA

[C] 01/04/2018 – Reggie Lynch is out for season ( Suspension )

Northwestern at Minnesota NCAAB Key Betting Trends

  • NW is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games
  • NW is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after a straight up win
  • NW has an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 games
  • MINN is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
  • MINN is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a winning record
  • MINN has an Under record of 7-1 in their last 8 games

Northwestern vs. Minnesota Betting Angles

Northwestern is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Minnesota.

The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 games between these teams.

In the last 9 games between these teams the Under record is 7-2.

In the last 5 games between these teams at Minnesota the Under record is 4-1.

Northwestern at Minnesota NCAAB Prediction 1/23/18

Northwestern has put up greater than 70 points in one Big Ten game this season and it came against Minnesota and I don’t think that they can repeat in the rematch. In true road games this season, they’ve averaged a meagre 61.5 points per game. In three conference road contests the number is skewed because of the 46 points scored against Indiana, so the 59.3 PPG is misleading, but what isn’t misleading is that they didn’t reach 70 points in all three. Minnesota has put up 71 points per game in Big Ten home games, however their previous game against NWU earlier this season on the road (60 points) and the team’s recent play scoring 66 or fewer points in four of their last five has me projecting a lower number. The probability of either team hitting 70 points is low making a total forecast on this game an easy call.

Free Pick: Take the UNDER 139.5
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