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Missouri Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers Odds, Analysis & Pick ATS

By Darin Zank
Date: 11/02/2023 6:00 pm
Location: Thompson-Boling Arena
TV: SECN

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Miz +11.5/Tenn -11.5
Total: 141.5

Two teams headed in different directions recently will take to the court of Thompson-Boling Arena when Missouri visits Knoxville for an SEC bout with Tennessee Saturday night. The Tigers are 4-1 their last five times out, while the Volunteers are only 1-2 over their last three games. Nonetheless, the Vols are favored by double-digits for this contest. Who do we like for our free college basketball betting pick?

College Basketball Betting Odds

Saturday’s CBB betting lines opened Tennessee as an 11-point favorite over Missouri, with an over/under of right around 141.5. Early betting action then edged the Vols to -11.5. According to Sagarin’s CBB ratings at USAToday.com, Tennessee should be favored by 12 points for this match-up.

Missouri-Tennessee College Basketball Betting Preview

The Tigers are 4-1 over their last five games after beating South Carolina at home Tuesday night 83-74. A back-and-forth first half resulted in a 42-37 Missouri lead into the locker room. The Tigers then fell behind to the Gamecocks early in the second half but used a 15-6 run to take the lead for good and held on for the victory. However, Mizzou came up well short of covering the spread as a 15-point favorite against the SEC’s worst team. Missouri shot 51 percent from the field Tuesday while allowing South Carolina to shoot 52 percent. But the Tigers also hit 12/25 from 3-point land, 17/21 from the FT line, and won the turnover battle 14-10. Two games ago, Mizzou shot just 32 percent from the field and lost at Mississippi State 63-52. But before that, they won three games in a row. At 6-5 in conference play, the Tigers sit in sixth place in the SEC, five games behind first-place Alabama. But at 18-6 overall, Missouri, barring a collapse, looks like a good bet to make it back to the NCAA tournament after missing out last season. Meanwhile, the Volunteers are only 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS their last three times out after getting upset at Vanderbilt Wednesday night 66-65. Tennessee, playing as a 10-point favorite, never led by more than five points all night. The Vols led 34-32 at the half and 65-63 late but lost it on a Commodores 3-pointer from the deep corner at the buzzer. Tennessee shot 47 percent from the floor Wednesday, held Vandy to 44 percent shooting, and won the battle on the glass 37-29. They just couldn’t put the Commodores away. Two games ago, the Volunteers shot just 27 percent from the field, beat Auburn ugly 46-43 but lost ATS at -9. Three games ago, they shot just 28 percent and lost at Florida 67-54. But just prior to that, they won nine of 10. At 8-3 in conference play, Tennessee trails the first-place Crimson Tide by three games in the SEC. But at 19-5 overall, the Vols are still in the running for a top two seed for the upcoming Big Dance.

Missouri-Tennessee Recent History

The Volunteers are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS over the last six meetings with the Tigers. Last year the Vols won the only meeting between these teams 80-61 in Columbus and covered at -10.5.

Common Opponents

These two teams have played eight common opponents so far this season; Kansas, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU, Mississippi State, and South Carolina. Tennessee played those foes to 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS, and +11 points per game, Missouri to 5-3 SU, 2-5-1 ATS, and +0 PPG.

Totals Report

  • The Overs are 14-10 in Tigers games this season, averaging 157 total points.
  • The Unders are 14-10 in Vols games this season, averaging 127 points.
  • The Overs are 3-1 over the last four meetings between these teams, primarily thanks to some low totals.

Missouri at Tennessee Prediction ATS 2/11/23

Missouri hit 12/25 from 3-point land Tuesday night; we doubt they can do that again Saturday against maybe the best defensive team in the country. Tennessee, meanwhile, hasn’t put on a good, full performance in a couple of weeks; they might be ripe for one here. Also, the Vols own the better performances against common opponents. The line on this game seems a bit steep, but maybe those oddsmakers are reading our minds. We’ll take Tennessee minus the points.

Free Pick: Take Tennessee -11.5
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