Navy brings an elite defense and a 26-7 record into Winston-Salem for a NIT first-round matchup against Wake Forest, but the Demon Deacons are laying 12.5 points at home with a significant adjusted efficiency advantage. The Midshipmen rank 5th nationally in points allowed and 23rd in opponent field goal percentage, but their 213th-ranked adjusted offense faces a Wake Forest squad that sits 68th offensively and 75th defensively in adjusted efficiency. The question is whether Navy’s defensive resistance can keep this game closer than the market expects, or if Wake Forest’s superior offensive firepower and home-court advantage justify the double-digit spread.
Navy vs Wake Forest College Basketball Prediction & Advanced Metrics Analysis
The numbers point to a clear efficiency gap favoring Wake Forest, but the market may be overvaluing the home team’s offensive edge. Navy ranks 102nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at 105.2, while Wake Forest checks in at 117.3 in adjusted offensive efficiency, ranking 68th. That creates a 12.1-point advantage when Wake Forest’s offense faces Navy’s defense. The Midshipmen counter with the 5th-best scoring defense in the country at 63.8 points allowed per game and hold opponents to just 40.5% shooting and 29.8% from three-point range, ranking 23rd and 8th nationally in those categories.
What that means is Navy has the defensive profile to slow Wake Forest’s attack, even if the adjusted numbers favor the Demon Deacons. Wake Forest’s 45.0% field goal percentage ranks just 191st nationally, and the team allows 77.1 points per game, ranking 264th defensively. Navy’s 106.8 adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 213th, but the Midshipmen shoot 47.6% from the floor and 36.0% from three, both respectable marks. Over a game projected at 65 possessions, the efficiency gap suggests Wake Forest wins by around six points when accounting for home court. The 12.5-point spread assumes Wake Forest dominates both ends, but Navy’s defensive resistance and Wake Forest’s middling shooting efficiency create value on the underdog.
College Basketball Betting Odds, Lines & Game Info
| Game | Navy at Wake Forest – NIT First Round |
| Date/Time | March 18, 2026, 7:00 PM ET |
| Location | LJVM Coliseum, Winston-Salem, NC |
| Point Spread | Wake Forest -12.5 |
| Over/Under | 148.5 |
| Navy Record | 26-7 (21-10 ATS) |
| Wake Forest Record | 17-16 (15-18 ATS) |
Navy Efficiency Profile
Navy built a 26-7 record on the strength of elite defensive execution and disciplined offensive efficiency. The Midshipmen rank 28th nationally in defensive rating at 99.7 and hold opponents to 63.8 points per game, 5th in the country. The 40.5% opponent field goal percentage ranks 23rd, and the 29.8% opponent three-point percentage ranks 8th. That matters because Navy forces difficult shots and limits second chances with a 26.9% defensive rebound rate that ranks 37th nationally in KenPom’s metrics.
Offensively, Navy operates at a crawl-pace tempo of 62.3 possessions per game, ranking 350th nationally. The Midshipmen compensate with efficient shooting at 47.6% from the floor, 36.0% from three, and a 53.6% effective field goal percentage. Austin Benigni leads the offense at 16.8 points and 4.5 assists per game, while center Aidan Kehoe adds 12.4 points and 9.1 rebounds. The assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.44 shows solid ball security, and the 58.1% true shooting percentage ranks 71st nationally. Navy’s 106.8 adjusted offensive efficiency ranks just 213th, but the team’s methodical approach and defensive foundation kept them competitive against stronger opponents throughout the season. The Midshipmen went 10-4 ATS on the road and 11-5 overall away from home, showing they can execute in hostile environments.
Wake Forest Efficiency Profile
Wake Forest enters the NIT with a 17-16 record and a 13.7 adjusted net rating that ranks 61st nationally. The Demon Deacons generate 117.3 adjusted offensive efficiency, ranking 68th, and allow 103.6 adjusted defensive efficiency, ranking 75th. The offensive profile centers on guard play, led by Juke Harris at 20.7 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. Harris ranks 22nd nationally in scoring, and his production drives Wake Forest’s 78.8 points per game average.
The matchup gets interesting here because Wake Forest’s shooting efficiency is pedestrian. The team shoots 45.0% from the floor, ranking 191st, and 34.4% from three, ranking 162nd. The 52.6% effective field goal percentage ranks 139th, and the defensive numbers show vulnerability. Wake Forest allows 77.1 points per game, ranking 264th, and opponents shoot 44.3% from the floor and 33.0% from three. The 105.651 adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 105th in KenPom’s system, nearly identical to Navy’s 105.2 mark. That is the edge for Navy—Wake Forest’s defense is not significantly better than the Midshipmen’s, and the Demon Deacons struggle to defend the three-point line.
Wake Forest’s 68.1 tempo ranks 134th nationally, faster than Navy but not explosive. The team went just 8-10 ATS at home and 4-10 straight up on the road, showing inconsistency away from LJVM Coliseum. Key guard Nate Calmese, who averaged 8.1 points and 5.9 assists per game, has been shut down for the remainder of the season with an undisclosed injury. Calmese’s absence removes a critical playmaker and forces more responsibility onto Harris and the supporting cast.
Matchup Breakdown
The efficiency differential favors Wake Forest, but the margin is narrower than the 12.5-point spread suggests. Wake Forest’s 117.3 adjusted offense against Navy’s 105.2 adjusted defense creates a 12.1-point advantage for the Demon Deacons. Navy’s 106.8 adjusted offense against Wake Forest’s 103.6 adjusted defense creates a 3.2-point advantage for the Midshipmen. The net rating gap of 12.1 points translates to roughly six points over a projected 65-possession game when accounting for a standard 2.2-point home-court advantage.
This is where the matchup turns. Navy’s defensive strength lies in perimeter defense and shot quality. The Midshipmen rank 8th nationally in opponent three-point percentage and 41st in effective field goal percentage allowed. Wake Forest relies heavily on Harris for scoring, and the supporting cast shoots inconsistently. Navy’s ability to limit three-point damage and force contested twos gives the Midshipmen a path to staying within the number. Wake Forest’s rebounding edge is minimal—the Demon Deacons grab 10.0 offensive rebounds per game compared to Navy’s 10.45, and Navy holds a slight edge in total rebounding at 36.6 per game versus Wake Forest’s 33.1.
The pace projection of 65 possessions favors Navy’s methodical style and limits Wake Forest’s transition opportunities. Navy’s 62.3 tempo ranks 350th, and Wake Forest’s 67.8 tempo ranks 141st. The blended pace keeps possessions limited and reduces variance. Over 65 possessions, Wake Forest projects to score around 72.4 points, and Navy projects to score around 68.4 points, suggesting a four-point margin. The line may not fully account for Navy’s defensive resistance and Wake Forest’s shooting inefficiency.
Recent Form and Betting Context
Navy enters the NIT on a 9-1 run over the last 10 games, covering eight of those contests. The Midshipmen went 16-4 ATS in conference play and 21-10 ATS overall, showing consistent value as underdogs and favorites. Wake Forest went 6-4 straight up in the last 10 games but just 15-18 ATS overall and 8-10 ATS at home. The Demon Deacons are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games, but that trend includes games against ACC competition with different matchup dynamics.
The total has gone over in eight of Wake Forest’s last 10 home games, suggesting offensive variance at LJVM Coliseum. Navy’s games have gone under 14 times in 31 contests, reflecting the slow pace and defensive emphasis. The projected total of 140.8 points sits well below the market number of 148.5, suggesting value on the under. Wake Forest’s absence of Nate Calmese removes a distributor who ranked 28th nationally in assists per game, and that loss impacts offensive flow and efficiency in a single-elimination setting.
The Statinator’s Model Play
Navy’s defensive profile and Wake Forest’s shooting inefficiency create a mismatch with the 12.5-point spread. The adjusted efficiency gap suggests a six-point margin, not a double-digit blowout. Navy ranks 28th in defensive rating, 5th in points allowed, and 8th in opponent three-point percentage. Wake Forest shoots just 45.0% from the floor and allows 77.1 points per game, showing vulnerability on both ends. The Midshipmen went 21-10 ATS this season and 10-4 ATS on the road, proving they can execute in tough environments. Wake Forest’s 15-18 ATS record and 8-10 home ATS mark show the market consistently overvalues the Demon Deacons. The 65-possession pace limits Wake Forest’s ability to pull away, and Navy’s methodical offensive approach keeps the game within reach. STATINATOR’S MODEL PLAY: Navy +12.5 – The 6.4-point efficiency edge creates double-digit value on the underdog.
