The final spot in this year’s Final Four will be decided when Auburn meets Michigan State in the South Region final Sunday evening in Atlanta.
The Spartans won the Big 10’s regular-season title this year and now seek their ninth Final Four appearance under Coach Izzo.
The Tigers won the SEC’s regular-season title and seek their second Final Four under Coach Pearl.
How are we playing this game with our free NCAA tournament betting pick?
NCAA Tournament Betting Odds
The NCAA tournament betting market opened Auburn at -5.5 over Michigan State, with an over/under of right around 148. Early betting action shaved that spread to -5.
Michigan State-Auburn Betting Preview
The Spartans reached this regional final by beating Ole Miss Friday night 73-70. Michigan State, favored at -3, trailed the Rebels 48-39 with 12 minutes left. But the Spartans rallied to take the lead for good with just over a minute left and hung on for the victory.
Unfortunately for those who bet Sparty Friday night, a “meaningless” Ole Miss 3-pointer at the buzzer created a push on the spread.
Michigan State shot 50 percent from the field Friday while holding the Rebs to 41 percent FG shooting.
The Spartans opened this NCAA tournament with an 87-62 first-round win over Bryant, covering at -17. Michigan State then beat New Mexico in the second round 71-63, covering at -6.5.
Meanwhile the Tigers reached this regional final by beating Michigan Friday night 78-65. Auburn, favored at -9, trailed the Wolverines 48-39 with just over 12 minutes to go. But the Tigers outscored Michigan 39-17 from there, sweep to the victory and the money.
Auburn only shot 39 percent from the floor Friday but held the Wolverines to 36 percent and won the battle on the boards 48-33.
The Tigers opened this NCAA tournament with an 83-63 victory over Alabama State, although they couldn’t cover at -31. Auburn then held off Creighton 82-70, covering at -9.
By the Numbers
Michigan State is shooting 46 percent from the field this season; Auburn is holding opponents to 41 percent shooting.
The Tigers are shooting 48 percent from the floor; the Spartans are holding foes to 40 percent.
Michigan State is out-rebounding opponents by a per-game margin of 37-28 and Auburn by 35-29.
Finally, according to Kenpom.com the Spartans played the No. 26 schedule in the country this season; the Tigers No. 2.
Common Opponents
These two teams have played six common opponents this season: Michigan, Monmouth, North Carolina, Ole Miss, Ohio State, and Purdue. The Spartans played those foes to 7-0 SU, 6-0-1 ATS, and +11 points per game; the Tigers to 8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS, and +20 ppg.
NCAA Tournament Betting Trends
- Michigan State is 13-4 SU, 12-4-1 ATS this season against teams that made this NCAA tournament.
- Auburn is 22-5 SU, 13-14 ATS vs. tournament qualifiers.
- Michigan State is 5-1 ATS this season as an underdog.
Totals Report
The Unders are 25-11 in Spartans games this season and 8-2 over their last 10 games.
The Unders are 4-1 over the Tigers’ last five games.
