Saturday’s college basketball betting market opened Alabama at -7.5 over Kentucky, with an over/under of right around 177. Early betting action bumped both the spread to -9 and the total to 179.
Kentucky-Alabama Betting Preview
The Alabama Crimson Tide look to get back on the winning track when they host the Kentucky Wildcats for an SEC originals bout Saturday evening in Tuscaloosa.
The Tide, so good for so much of this season, suddenly forgot how to play defense; they gave up 94 points in a loss last weekend and 110 in a loss Wednesday night.
Meanwhile the Wildcats are playing their way out of some doldrums but at the moment are down two starting guards.
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The Wildcats are 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS over their last four games after beating Vanderbilt Wednesday night 82-61. Kentucky, favored at -5, only led that game 41-40 at the half. But the ‘Cats scored the first three buckets of the second half and pulled away from there for the W and the cover.
Kentucky shot 58 percent from the floor Wednesday while holding the Commodores to just 40 percent FG shooting.
Wednesday was the third time in their last five games the Wildcats shot 50 percent or better from the field and the fourth straight game they held their opponents to 45 percent or less.
Two games ago, Kentucky lost at No. Texas 82-78 but covered at +4.5. Three games ago UK beat No. 5 Tennessee 75-64. And four games ago the Wildcats bombed South Carolina 80-57, covering at -11.
At 7-6 in conference play Kentucky is two games out of fourth place in the SEC. (In the SEC the top four finishers in the regular-season standings earn double-byes for the SEC tournament.) Also, at 18-8 overall, the Wildcats are projected as a top-four seed for the upcoming NCAA tournament. However, the ‘Cats still got some tough games to play – at Oklahoma, vs. Auburn and at Missouri – so nothing’s in stone yet.
Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide are coming off back-to-back defeats, most recently an embarrassing 110-98 decision at Missouri Wednesday night. Alabama gave up the first 12 points of the game and 59 in the first half! The Tide got back to within 79-73 midway through the second half but ran out of the gas from there.
Alabama allowed the Tigers to shoot 60 percent from the field Wednesday and lost the turnover battle 14-8.
Two games ago, the Tide lost to No. 1 Auburn 94-85. However, just prior to that, Alabama won seven straight.
At 10-3 in conference play the Tide is tied for second place in the SEC with Florida, two games behind first-place Florida. And at 21-5 overall, Alabama is still in contention for a top seed in the Big Dance. But ‘Bama’s got tough games yet to play, too – five ranked teams round out the regular-season schedule.
On the injury front Kentucky is expected to play without guards Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson (combined 26 ppg this season).
By the Numbers
Kentucky is shooting 49 percent from the field this season, 38 percent from 3-point range and 74 percent from the free-throw line. The Wildcats are also holding opponents to 42 percent FG shooting and out-rebounding foes by 35-32 per game. This while playing what ESPN ranks as the 21st-toughest schedule in the country.
Alabama is shooting 48/34/72 percent across the board and despite giving up a lot of points lately is actually limiting opponents to 42 percent FG shooting, 30 percent from 3-point land. The Tide is also out-rebounding foes 40-32. This while playing ESPN’s No. 1 schedule.
Kentucky-Alabama Recent History
Alabama is 2-1 both SU and ATS over the last three meetings with Kentucky. The Tide also took the first meeting between these teams this season one month ago, 102-97 in Lexington.
That game was tied at 81-81 with five minutes left when Alabama went on a 9-0 run and held on from there.
The ‘Cats out-shot ‘Bama that day from the floor 48 percent to 45 percent, but the Tide shot 29/34 from the line, compared to Kentucky’s 16/20.
Also, that game played over a total of 179 as the teams combined to score 107 points in the second half!
Kentucky-Alabama Betting Trends
Kentucky is 2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS in true road games this season.
Totals Report
The overs are 14-12 in Wildcats games this season, which are averaging 162 total points.
The overs are 13-12 in Tide games, which are averaging 171 points.
