SEC rivals Kentucky and Tennessee meet for the third time this season, this time in an NCAA tournament Sweet 16 match Friday night in Indianapolis.
The Wildcats already swept two games from the Volunteers during the regular season but Tennessee is the higher seed for this tournament and the betting favorite for Friday night.
Which way are we going with our free NCAA tournament betting pick?
NCAA Tournament Betting Odds
The NCAA tournament betting market opened Tennessee at -5.5 for Friday night, with an over/under of right around 146. Early betting action dipped both that spread to -4.5 and that total to 144.5.
Kentucky-Tennessee Betting Preview
The Wildcats reached this Sweet 16 match-up by beating 14th-seeded Troy in a first-round bout last Friday 76-57, then knocking off 6th-seeded Illinois Sunday 84-75. Kentucky, favored at -11 Friday, only led the Trojans by six with 13 minutes to go. But a 16-0 run propelled the ‘Cats to the victory and the cover. Then, Sunday, Kentucky scored the first 10 points of the second half on its way toward the W.
The Wildcats shot 48 percent from the field against Troy and 47 percent against Illinois.
Kentucky finished its regular season with a 3-1 run, the loss coming against Auburn. The Wildcats then won their first game in the SEC tournament over Oklahoma before losing, badly, to Alabama in the quarterfinals. So Kentucky is 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS over its last eight games.
Meanwhile, the Volunteers reached this NCAA tournament regional semifinal by defeating 15th-seeded Wofford in a first-round match last Thursday 77-62, then beating 7th-seeded UCLA in the second round Saturday 67-58. Tennessee, favored at -18 Thursday, never trailed and had the spread pushed until a “meaningless” Terriers 3-pointer in the last half-minute cost it the cover. Then Saturday, the Vols, at -5, led 32-25 at the half and later by 19, on their way to the win and the money.
Tennessee held Wofford to 42 percent FG shooting and the Bruins to just 36 percent.
The Vols finished their regular season with a 5-1 run, the only loss coming by a bucket against Ole Miss, which is also still alive in this NCAA tournament. Tennessee then won two games in the SEC tournament before falling to Florida in the championship game. So the Volunteers are 9-2 SU but 4-7 ATS over their last 11 games, favored by a bit too much several times.
Tennessee-Kentucky Recent History
The Wildcats swept two games from the Vols this season, 78-73 in Nashville in January and 75-64 in Lexington in February. Kentucky was a 10-point dog for that first match-up but shot 50 percent from the field and won. Two weeks later, the ‘Cats, as 3-point home dogs, trailed late but finished the game with a 17-4 run to steal the victory.
That first match-up played over a total of 145, while the second meeting played under a total of 146.
Going back a bit further, Kentucky is 5-1 in both SU and ATS over the last six meetings with Tennessee.
Statistically Speaking
Kentucky is shooting 48 percent from the floor this season, while Tennessee is holding opponents to 38 percent shooting.
The Volunteers are shooting 46 percent from the floor, while the Wildcats are allowing opponents to shoot 44 percent.
Kentucky is out-rebounding opponents by a per-game margin of 35-32; Tennessee by 33-27.
Finally, according to Kenpom.com, the Wildcats have played the No. 3 schedule in the nation this season, the Vols No. 12.
NCAA Tournament Betting Trends
Kentucky is 15-10 SU, 13-12 ATS this season against teams that made this NCAA tournament.
Tennessee is 19-7 SU, 13-12-1 ATS vs. tournament qualifiers.
Totals Report
The Unders are 3-0 over Kentucky’s last three games, thanks in part to some high totals.
The Overs are 5-2 over Tennessee’s last seven games.
