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Kansas State Wildcats at Baylor Bears Betting Odds – Free Pick

By Cliff Knox
Date: 09/03/2017 9:00 pm
Location: Sprint Center
TV: ESPNU

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Baylor -5
Total: 130

The Kansas State Wildcats face the 9th ranked Baylor Bears in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament in a game that will take place at a neutral site at the Sprint Center Kansas City, Missouri at 9 PM ET. Baylor hit the boards as a -4.5 point spread fav and most sportsbooks have bumped that a half point to -5. The consensus total line is 130 points.

Kansas State has won 19 of their 31 games on the season and they have an ATS record of 13-12-2 in the 27 games that have had a posted line. Baylor has won 25 of their 31 games this season and they have covered the spread in 14 of the 26 games that have had a posted line.

Kansas State is coming off a 61-48 win over Texas Tech in their last game where they covered the 3-point line. The total number of points scored in the game was 109, which was well under the closing line of 134. The Wildcats have covered the spread in their last two games after failing to do so in two in a row and in four of their last five games the total has gone under. Kansas State has won two straight games since losing back-to-back games against Oklahoma State and Oklahoma.

Baylor is coming off a 75-64 win over Texas in their last game where they covered the 6-point line. The total number of points scored in the game was 139, which was over the closing line of 130. The Bears have covered the spread in their last two games after failing to do so in four in a row and in two of their last three games the total has gone over. Baylor has won two in a row and three of their last four games.

Offensively, Kansas State is putting up 72.5 points per game on a 45.9% FG average. On the defensive side of things the Wildcats are allowing 67.5 points per game on a 42.9% FG average.

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Baylor is putting up 73 points per game on a 46.7% FG average. On defense the Bears are allowing 62.5 points per game, which ranks 18th in the nation, on a 39.5% FG average, which ranks 15th in the nation.

These two teams split the two games facing each other this season with each winning on the road.

Kansas State Wildcats at Baylor Bears Betting Trends

  • Kansas State is 4-7-1 against the spread in their last 12 games overall.
  • The Wildcats are 1-4 straight up in their last 5 games against the Bears.
  • The game total has gone over in 6 of Kansas State’s last 8 games against Baylor.
  • Baylor is 2-4 against the spread in their last 6 games overall.
  • The Bears are 19-6 straight up in their last 25 games overall.

Public Money Consensus

In this NCAAB matchup between Kansas State and Baylor have the public heavily supporting the Bears minus the 5 points at home with over 77%. The over/under bettors are leaning just slightly to this game staying under the posted total line of 130 with just 51% on board.

Kansas State at Baylor Bears Prediction

These two meet in early February in a tough defensive battle won by the visiting Wildcats 56-54 falling well short of the 130.5 closing total line. The first meeting of the season back on January 14th was a completely different story with the two squads putting up 145 points. I think we’ll see a repeat of that in this match. KSU’s defense has allowed an average of 62.2 points per game overall this season, but that rises to 73.4 PPG in Big 12 games. Baylor’s overall versus conference number doesn’t have as substantial a rise, but they do allow 64.3 in Big 12 games compared to 62.8 seasonal average. My projection for this game is in the 135 range making this a good value at the current 130. *Baylor’s top guard Manu Lecomte is iffy for this game, so keep an eye on the inactives before making this play.

 

Free Pick: Take the OVER 130*
Bovada

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