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Kansas State at Texas Expert Pick & Analysis

By Rich Crew
Date: 03/01/2023 9:00 pm
Location: Moody Center
TV: LHN

Betting Odds



Point Spread: KSU +8.5/Tex -8.5
Total: 134.5

The Longhorns will look to extend their winning ways when they host the K-State Wildcats on Tuesday night at the Moody Center. Texas is 9-0 in home games this season, beating the opposition by an average score of 86.4 to 62. K-State has played just two true road games and beat a weak Cal team, and was crushed by Butler.

Line Movement

This line was as high as Texas -10 at a few books when it hit the board and has now been all over the place with some -8s earlier in the day and now some books hanging -9.5 (-120). The total has been on a downward spiral, opening at 138 and now at a consensus 134.5 points..

Last Game Info

Kansas State picked up a victory over West Virginia by a score of 82-76. Heading into the game, the Wildcats were favored to win, with a point spread of -1. The combined 158 points finished above the 141 total line.

Texas is coming off a 70-69 win over Oklahoma. However, they did not cover the spread in the game as a -3 point favorite. The combined 139 points finished above the 133.5 total line.

Current Form

Kansas State
Over their last five games, Kansas State has a straight-up record of 5-0 while going 4-1 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Wildcats’ offense averages 81.0 points per game while hitting 49.8% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 39.5% from the field while allowing 62.2 points per contest.

Texas
In their previous five contests, Texas is 5-0 straight-up and 1-4 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 85.2 points per game on a shooting percentage of 50.5%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 46.9% of their shots while giving up 71.2 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Kansas State’s opponents comes in at 76.9. On the other side, Texas’ combined opponent power rating sits at 72.1.

How Does Kansas State Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Wildcats have played three road games and have a record of 2-1. In these contests, Kansas State is 2-1 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 68.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.2%. On defense, the Wildcats allow 62.3 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 42.7% in these games.

How Does Texas Fare At Home?

In their 12 games at home, Texas has a 5-7 record vs. the spread while going 11-1 straight up. On offense, the Longhorns are shooting 50.6% on their home floor, leading to 83.8 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 40.1% in these contests. The Texas defense is allowing 62.2 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Kansas State is averaging 69.0 points per game (266th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 42.0%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Texas defense that has allowed an average of 62.7 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 40.8% of their shots vs. Texas. On the other side, the Texas Longhorns are coming into the game averaging 68.3 points per game on a shooting percentage of 44.2%. The Longhorns will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 62.0 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 41.7% of their shots vs. the Wildcats.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Kansas State has a shooting percentage of 34.6% while ranking 228th in attempts per game. The Wildcats will be facing a Texas defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 31.2%. Texas enters the game, having hit 32.3% of their looks from deep while averaging 6.41 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Kansas State has allowed opponents to hit 30.1% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Kansas State

  • David N’Guessan (Out) Undisclosed
  • Jerrell Colbert (Out) Redshirt
  • Taj Manning (Out) Redshirt
  • Anthony Thomas (Out) Redshirt

Texas

  • Rowan Brumbaugh (Out) Redshirt

Kansas State at Texas Pick ATS 1/3/23

The Longhorns (-3.5) showed a lot of grit battling for the slim 1-point win on the road in Oklahoma on New Year’s Eve. The Longhorns haven’t been a bettor’s best friend as of latefailing to cover the spread in six of their last eight games. They have a good shot to start an upward trend tonight. They face a KSU team that may be a little too full of themselves after coming back from a large early deficit and prevailing 82-76 in overtime on Saturday. Texas is the better shooting team. They play better defense and can trash KSU on the boards.

Free Pick: Take Texas -8.5
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