College basketball blue-blood Duke looks to get one step closer to its sixth national championship when it meets a tough Houston team in Saturday’s second NCAA tournament national semifinal in San Antonio.
The Blue Devils are double champions in the ACC this season, winning the regular-season title and the conference tournament. They then won the East Region of this NCAA tournament.
The Cougars are double champions in the Big 12 and just won the Midwest Region of this NCAA tournament.
The Dukies are favored by a couple of buckets for this contest. Who do we like for our free Final Four betting pick?
Final Four Betting Odds
The Final Four betting market opened Duke at -4.5 for Saturday night, with an O/U of right around 136. Early betting action edged that line to -5.
Houston-Duke Betting Preview
The Cougars opened this NCAA tournament with a 78-40 victory over SIUE, covering at -28. Houston had that spread pushed at the half, up 52-24, then allowed just 16 points in the second to secure the money. The Cougars then held off Gonzaga 81-76, pushing the spread at -5. Houston then held off Purdue 62-60, winning on a bucket at the buzzer, although they couldn’t cover at -9.
Then, in the Midwest final last Sunday, the Cougars destroy Tennessee 69-50, easily covering at -3.
So Houston is 2-1-1 ATS in this NCAA tournament, with two blow-outs and two close calls.
The Cougars are only shooting 42 percent from the floor in this tournament but are holding opponents to just 38 percent shooting. Houston is also out-rebounding foes by a per-game margin of 36-27.
Meanwhile, the Blue Devils opened this NCAA tournament with a 93-49 romp over Mount St. Mary’s, covering at 32. Duke then beat Baylor 89-66, cashing at -12, then beat Arizona 100-93. And that win over the Wildcats was not as close as that final score might indicate, considering the Blue Devils led by 19 midway through the second half. But they coughed up the cover at -9.
Finally, in the East Region final last Saturday, Duke disposed of Alabama 85-65 and covered at -7.
So the Blue Devils are 3-1 ATS in this tournament, basically making things look easy.
Duke is shooting 56 percent from the floor in this tournament while holding opponents to 37 percent. The Dukies are also out-rebounding foes 34-28.
Key Numbers
According to Kenpom.com, Houston played the No. 22 schedule in the country this season, and Duke No. 54.
Houston-Duke Recent History
These teams just met back in the Sweet 16 round of last year’s NCAA tournament, a 54-51 Blue Devils victory. Several guys who played key roles in that game are still around.
Houston was a No. 1 seed last year and favored by -4 for that game but just couldn’t catch the Dukies down the stretch.
Also, that game played way under a total of 133 as the teams combined to shoot just 41 percent from the floor.
Common Opponents
These teams have played six common opponents this season: Alabama, Auburn, Arizona, Baylor, Kansas, and Notre Dame. The Blue Devils played those foes to 6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS, and +11 points per game; the Cougars to 7-2 SU, 4-4-1 ATS, and +4 ppg.
NCAA Tournament Betting Trends
Houston is 14-4 SU, 9-7-2 ATS this season against teams that made this NCAA tournament.
Duke is 13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS vs. tournament qualifiers.
Totals Report
- The Under is 3-1 in Houston’s four games in this tournament.
- The Over is 3-1 in Duke’s four games in this tournament.
