The NCAA tournament round of 16 tips off Thursday night when 2nd-seeded Alabama battles 6th-seeded BYU in Newark.
Both these teams can throw the ball in the hole at a pretty good rate so this game will likely be won by the team that comes up with the most defensive stops.
Which way are we going here for our free NCAA tournament basketball betting pick?
NCAAB Tournament Betting Odds
The NCAA tournament betting market opened Alabama at -4.5 for Thursday night, with an over/under of right around 173. Early betting action bumped both that spread to -5.5 and that total to 176.
BYU-Alabama Betting Preview
The Cougars reached this Sweet 16 match-up by beating VCU in a first-round game last Thursday 80-71, then out-lasting Wisconsin in a second-round game Saturday 91-89. BYU led the Rams Thursday by 11 at the half and later by 20, on its way toward covering at -2.5. Brigham Young then led Wisconsin by 11 with just over two minutes to go, allowed the Badgers to get within a bucket late but secured victory with a defensive stop in the final seconds.
BYU shot 50 percent from the field against VCU, then 49 percent against Wisconsin. They also held the Rams to 41 percent FG shooting, the Badgers to 43 percent.
The Cougars finished their regular season with an eight-game winning streak, then won one game in the Big 12 tournament before falling to Houston in the semifinals. So BYU is 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS over its last 12 games.
Meanwhile the Crimson Tide reached this regional semifinal by beating Robert Morris in a first-round game Friday 90-81, then handling St. Mary’s Sunday 80-66. Alabama actually trailed RMU Friday 65-64 with seven minutes left, rallied to win but never came close to covering the spread at -22. Sunday, though, the Tide led the Gaels by 13 at the half, never let the lead get under seven in the second half and covered at -5.
Alabama shot 59 percent from the floor Friday and 52 percent Sunday. They also held Robert Morris to 42 percent shooting and St. Mary’s to just 34 percent.
The Tide finished their regular season by losing four of their last seven games, albeit against a tough run of opponents. ‘Bama then won one game in the SEC tournament before losing to Florida in the semifinals. So Alabama is 6-5, both SU and ATS, over its last 11 games.
By the Numbers
BYU is shooting 48 percent from the field this season, while Alabama is holding opponents to 42 percent shooting.
The Tide are shooting 49 percent from the floor while the Cougars are holding foes to 43 percent.
BYU is out-rebounding opponents by a per-game margin of 34-28 and Alabama by 39-33.
The Cougars own a per-game assist/turnover margin of 17/12; the Tide 17/13.
Finally, according to Kenpom.com BYU has played the No. 47 schedule in the country this season; Alabama No. 1.
Common Opponents
These teams played two common opponents this season; Houston and Ole Miss. The Cougars got blown out twice by Houston and lost to the Rebels in overtime; the Tide beat Houston in overtime and lost to Ole Miss by 10.
NCAA Tournament Betting Trends
BYU is 7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS this season against teams that made this NCAA tournament.
Alabama is 19-8 SU, 16-11 ATS vs. tournament qualifiers.
Totals Report
The Overs are 8-2 over BYU’s last ten games.
The Overs are 4-2 over Alabama’s last six games.
The Unders are 27-19 in this NCAA tournament.
