Alabama vs. Mississippi State Analysis & Total Pick

This game is the SEC conference opener for the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Mississippi State Bulldogs when they meet at Humphrey Coliseum on Wednesday night. The Tide have more losses, but they’ve played the more difficult schedule.

Line Movement

This game opened on the college basketball betting board as high as -2.5 but has bucked the public consensus falling to as low as -1 at most sportsbooks at the time of writing. The total line was originally offered at 138 or lower but has quickly been bet up to 141.

Last Game Info

Alabama is coming off an 84-64 win over Jackson State. However, they did not cover the spread in the game as a -29.5 point favorite. The combined 148 points did not surpass the 154.5 total line.

Going into their last game, Mississippi State was the betting favorite at -4.5 but fell to Drake by a score of 58-52. The combined 110 points did not surpass the 129.5 total line.

Current Form

Alabama
Over their last five games, Alabama has a straight-up record of 4-1 while going 1-4 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Crimson Tide offense averages 82.8 points per game while hitting 45.6% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 43.3% from the field while allowing 76.4 points per contest.

Mississippi State
In their previous five contests, Mississippi State is 4-1 straight-up and 1-4 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 68.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 43.8%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 38.4% of their shots while giving up 57.2 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Alabama’s opponents comes in at 77.9. On the other side, Mississippi State’s combined opponent power rating sits at 70.5.

How Does Alabama Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Crimson Tide have played four road games and have a record of 3-1. In these contests, Alabama is 2-2 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 76.8 points per game on a shooting percentage of 42.3%. On defense, the Crimson Tide are allowing 72.5 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 41.1% in these games.

How Does Mississippi State Fare At Home?

In their 11 games at home, Mississippi State has a 5-6 record vs. the spread while going 10-1 straight-up. On offense, the Bulldogs are shooting 42.4% on their home floor, leading to 68.2 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 36.4% in these contests. The Mississippi State defense is allowing 52.7 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Alabama is averaging 80.0 points per game (15th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 44.1%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Mississippi State defense that has allowed an average of 52.6 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 35.8% of their shots vs. Mississippi State. On the other side, the Mississippi State Bulldogs are coming into the game averaging 70.9 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.4%. The Bulldogs will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 72.1 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 38.7% of their shots vs. the Crimson Tide.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Alabama has a shooting percentage of 30.8% while ranking 61st in attempts per game. The Crimson Tide will be facing a Mississippi State defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 29.7%. Mississippi State enters the game, hitting 29.5% of their looks from deep while averaging 4.64 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Alabama has allowed opponents to hit 28.6% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Alabama

• Dominick Welch (Out) Calf
• Nimari Burnett (Out) Wrist
• Noah Clowney (Questionable) Illness

Mississippi State

• Shakeel Moore (Questionable) Undisclosed
• Shawn Jones Jr. (Questionable) Leg