It’s a match-up many college basketball fans and bettors hoped for heading into this NCAA tournament when Duke meets Alabama in the East Region final Saturday night in Newark.
The Crimson Tide made the Final Four last year and can throw the ball in the hole like few other teams can. Meanwhile the Blue Devils have quite possibly the best player in the country. So this game should be a dandy to watch and bet.
Who do we like for our free NCAA tournament betting pick?
NCAA Tournament Betting Odds
The NCAA tournament betting market opened Duke at -6 over Alabama, with an over/under of right around 171. Early betting action bumped that line to -7 and goosed that total to 175.
Alabama-Duke Betting Preview
The Crimson Tide reached this NCAA tournament regional final by beating BYU Thursday night 113-88. Alabama, favored at -4.5, led 51-40 at the half and later by 25, on its way toward the easier-than-expected victory and the cover.
The Tide shot 53 percent from the floor Thursday and hit 25/51 from 3-point land.
Alabama opened this NCAA tournament with a 90-81 win over Robert Morris, although they couldn’t cover at -21. ‘Bama then beat St. Mary’s 80-66 and covered at -5.
The Tide has also shot at least 52 percent from the field in all three of its tournament games.
Meanwhile the Blue Devils reached this regional final by beating Arizona Thursday night 100-93. Duke, favored at -9, led 48-42 at the half, then by 19 midway through the second. But the Dukies allowed the Wildcats to rally back within five late, held on to win but pissed away the cover.
Duke shot 60 percent from the floor Thursday and hit 11/19 from 3-point territory.
The Blue Devils opened this NCAA tournament with a 93-49 decision over Mount St. Mary’s and covered at -32. Duke then beat Baylor 89-66 and covered at -12.
The Blue Devils have also shot at least 50 percent from the field in all three of their tournament games.
By the Numbers
Alabama is shooting 49 percent from the floor this season; Duke is holding opponents to 39 percent FG shooting.
The Blue Devils are shooting 49 percent from the floor; the Tide are holding foes to 42 percent.
Alabama is out-rebounding opponents by a per-game margin of 39-33; Duke by 36-27.
The Tide own a 17/13 per-game assist/turnover ratio; the Blue Devils 17/9.
Finally, according to Kenpom.com Alabama has played the No. 1 schedule in the country this season, Duke No. 57.
Common Opponents
These teams have played four common opponents this season; Auburn, Illinois, Kentucky and North Carolina. The Tide played those foes to 6-1 both SU and ATS and +10 points per game; the Blue Devils to 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS and +13 ppg.
NCAA Tournament Betting Trends
Alabama is 20-8 SU, 17-11 ATS this season against teams that made this NCAA tournament.
Duke is 12-3 SU, 10-5 ATS vs. tournament qualifiers.
Alabama is 6-2 ATS this season as an underdog.
Totals Report
The Overs are 5-2 over Alabama’s last seven games.
The Overs are 10-3 over Duke’s last 13 games.
