Pepperdine Waves at Santa Clara Broncos Free NCAAB Picks – Odds and Predictions
Date: 28/12/2017 10:00 pm
Point Spread: Santa Clara -6.5
The Pepperdine Waves and the Santa Clara Broncos will do battle in Santa Clara, California on Thursday, December 28th, 2017 at 10:00 PM ET. The contest is one of importance be that it is a West Coast Conference match-up that is the opening conference contest for both parties. Despite poor out-of-conference showings by both teams, the two outfits can erase that with a strong portfolio of results within the WCC. The affair will be aired on The W TV. As of late Santa Clara has had Pepperdine’s number. The Broncos defeated the Waves in both meetings in 2017. The last one in Santa Clara in particular was a nightmare for Pepperdine as they were steamrolled 106-55. Both teams enter this contest on losing streaks. For Pepperdine, the Waves have dropped their last three. Santa Clara has lost their previous four fixtures.
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Straight Up and Against the Point Spread Records
Pepperdine Waves, 3-9 SU, 4-7 ATS
Santa Clara Broncos, 3-9 SU, 1-9 ATS
Pepperdine at Santa Clara NCAAB Key Betting Trends
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Pepperdine is 0-5 SU on the road this season.
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Santa Clara is 3-5 SU at home this season.
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Santa Clara is 3-1 ATS in the previous four meetings against Pepperdine.
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Over is 3-0 ATS in the last three contests between both parties.
Public Money
Out of the gate the market rose by 1.5 points indicating that heavy action has rolled in on Santa Clara. The Over/Under has lowered by just half of a point to reflect action on the Under. This movement came surprisingly enough after the Over for this market was offered at +116 when the market opened with an initial offering of 142.5.
Pepperdine Waves at Santa Clara Broncos Prediction
A recency bias is the likely culprit for Santa Clara receiving so much love in this spot. The fact that Pepperdine has lost all its games on the road this season combined with the fact that Santa Clara has won all of theirs at home, enhances this sentiment. Chances are the market is adept to these narratives and exploiting them with an inflated point spread. There is no other reason why a team on a four-game losing streak that sports an eyesore win-loss record would spotting such lumber.
For Pepperdine in particular, their defense has been abysmal. According to KenPom, the Waves own the 333rd ranked Adjusted Defense rating. The Waves give up 80 points per game which places them 315th nationally in that category. However, Santa Clara’s offense is not one to marvel at as they average just 72.3 points per game (232nd Nationally). The Broncos are also one of the worst in creating second chances as they are ranked 345th nationally in offensive rebounding with just 29.8 rebounds per game. This was attained against a 325th ranked Non-Conference Strength of Schedule.
The bottom line is this, Pepperdine will likely catch a break here against a weak offense that does not have the ability to create a lot of second chances to attack their defense. As a result, the Waves will not have to sweat it out as they did against the likes of Weber State, Belmont, Texas A&M, or Oklahoma State all of whom are far more prolific than Santa Clara in scoring and chance creation. We have two teams comparable in quality as reflected by wins and losses. But Pepperdine has played a tougher schedule and is nevertheless being granted a generous cushion in this spot. We’ll take full advantage.
Free Pick: Take Pepperdine +6
