Anthony Edwards Minnesota Timberwolves

Warriors vs. Timberwolves Prediction: Can Butler Steal Game 1?

By Geekbrandmedia
Date: 06/05/2025 9:30 pm
Location: Target Center
TV: TNT

Betting Odds



Point Spread: Minn -7
Total: 209.5

“Fresh” off their first-round Game 7 victory over Houston, the Warriors head to Minneapolis for Game 1 of this Western Conference semifinals series with the Timberwolves on Tuesday night.

Golden State had a chance to close out that series earlier but let the Rockets extend them to seven games. How much do the Warriors have in the tank for Tuesday night?

Meanwhile, Minnesota made mincemeat out of the Lakers in five games, earning several extra days off.

However, the team with much less rest just won the first game of the other Western Conference semifinal, so we’re wondering how much the “rest” factor really means.

How are we playing this Game 1 with our free NBA playoffs betting pick?

NBA Betting Odds

The NBA playoffs betting market opened Minnesota at -8 for Tuesday night, with an over/under of right around 209. Early betting action edged that spread down to -7.5.

The Timberwolves are also lined at -195 to win this series, with the Warriors catching +165.

Warriors-Timberwolves Game 1 Betting Preview

Golden State reached these Western Conference semifinals by outlasting Houston in seven games in a first-round series, clinching it with a 103-89 Game 7 victory Sunday night. The Warriors, as two-point dogs, led 51-39 at the half, let the Rockets stay within a sniff most of the second half, then pulled away late to secure the W.

Golden State led that series three games to one, then lost Games 5 and 6 to make things very interesting. But they came up big on the road when they needed to, a sign of a good, veteran team.

On the other side of this match-up, Minnesota advanced to these conference semifinals by beating the Lakers in five games in a first-round series, clinching it with a 103-96 decision in Los Angeles last Wednesday. So the T’Wolves are playing on five days’ rest Tuesday night.

Minnesota set the tone in that Lakers series when it won Game 1 in LA by 22 points. The Timberwolves gave Los Angeles Game 2, then took Games 3, 4, and 5, covering three straight spreads along the way. 

Minnesota finished one game ahead of the Warriors in the regular-season standings but Golden State took the season series from the Timberwolves three games to one.

These teams met three times last December alone, and last met back in mid-January. And that was all long before the Warriors picked up Jimmy Butler in that trade with Miami.

Through those four meetings, both teams shot 45 percent from the floor.

NBA Betting Trends

Golden State is 28-11 SU, 20-17-2 ATS since adding Butler in that trade back in February.

Totals Report

  • The totals split 2-2 in Warriors-Timberwolves games this season, which averaged 216 total points against an average O/U of 218.
  • The Under was 4-3 in Golden State’s first-round series against Houston.
  • The Under was 3-2 in Minnesota’s first-round series against the Lakers. 

Free Spread Pick

Golden State just played Sunday night but hey, Denver just took Game 1 of its series with Oklahoma City Monday night, so maybe the “rest” thing don’t mean all that much. Also, the Warriors took the season series from Minnesota without Butler. We’re actually rooting for the upstart Timberwolves to win this series but we bet with our head so we’re taking Golden State plus the points Tuesday night.

Free Pick: Take the Warriors +7
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