Game Overview
We’re seeing sharp money come in strong on this one. The total opened at 206.5 and got hit down to 204.5—a clear sign the market respects the UNDER. That’s notable in a playoff spot, where recreational money usually leans low anyway. Meanwhile, the spread nudged from -4 to -3.5 for Houston, signaling cautious respect for a road-tested Golden State squad.
Golden State enters on a 5-0 SU/ATS run on the road, averaging 115.3 PPG away from home in their last 10—well above their season average. Houston, on the other hand, has dropped 4 of 5 and hasn’t covered in any of those games. They’ve been brutal against the Warriors too—1-6 ATS in their last 7 at home in this matchup.
Key Matchups and Analysis
The Warriors’ perimeter dominance continues to haunt Houston. Golden State is lighting it up from deep—38.4% from three over their last 10 against the Rockets, including 148 made triples. Houston’s perimeter D isn’t bad (11th in 3PT% allowed), but they haven’t found answers for Curry and Co.
However, Houston owns the glass, especially at home (49.4 RPG, #1). Golden State grabs 45.2 per game, so extra possessions could swing things if it stays tight late.
Statistical Edges
- Golden State: 8-2 SU & ATS last 10 vs HOU, +7 PPG margin
- First Half Edge: Warriors +9.3 average first-half margin over last 10 (55.6 to 46.3)
- UNDER: 7 of last 10 meetings have gone under, including 5 straight
