The Oklahoma City Thunder (73-17) look to bounce back against the Denver Nuggets (56-36) in a crucial Game 4 matchup at Ball Arena on Sunday, May 11, 2025. With Denver leading the series 2-1, this Western Conference Semifinals contest could be the swing game.
Series Situation
The Thunder trail the series 2-1 after Denver secured a hard-fought overtime victory in Game 3. Oklahoma City dominated Game 2 with a 43-point blowout after a surprising flat performance in Game 1.
Team Trends
Oklahoma City Thunder:
- Dominant 73-17 regular season record
- 16-2 SU in their last 18 road games
- 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games
- Averaging 120.2 PPG (4th in NBA)
- Lead the league in fewest turnovers (11.6 per game)
- Rank 7th in field goal percentage
- Average 14.3 made three-pointers per game (6th)
Denver Nuggets:
- 56-36 regular season record
- 30-16 SU at home this season
- 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at Ball Arena
- Struggling against the spread at home (5-14 ATS in last 19)
- Allow 116.4 PPG (25th in NBA)
- Rank 22nd in three-point defense
Key Factors
This matchup will likely be decided by:
- Shooting efficiency – OKC shot just 38.5% in Game 3 (an outlier)
- Tempo and pace – Both teams are capable of pushing the scoring
- Three-point shooting – Thunder’s volume vs Denver’s weak perimeter defense
- Turnovers – Thunder’s ball security vs Denver’s bottom-5 ranking in forcing TOs
What To Expect
The Thunder will look to bounce back after their poor shooting performance in Game 3. Despite the loss, they won the rebounding battle and took more shots than Denver, suggesting their Game 3 performance may have been an anomaly.
The Over has hit in 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams, and 5 of Denver’s last 6 games have gone Over the total. With both teams shooting 35+ three-pointers per game and Oklahoma City averaging 123.7 PPG over their last 10, we should see plenty of scoring.
