The San Antonio Spurs seek their ninth win in eleven tries against New Orleans, entering as surprising road underdogs despite owning the matchup. With the Spurs’ three-point attack primed to exploit the Pelicans’ league-worst perimeter defense, getting points looks appetizing in the Big Easy.
Notable Injuries
Spurs:
- No key injuries reported
Pelicans:
- No key injuries reported
Game Overview
The Spurs and Pelicans enter this matchup on opposite ends of the Western Conference standings. San Antonio sits in 12th place at 24-30, while New Orleans has struggled all year, holding a league-worst 13-43 record.
Despite their record, the Pelicans are favored at home by **2.5 points**, but San Antonio has historically owned this matchup, winning **8 of the last 10 meetings** outright. The Pelicans also have defensive issues that could make them vulnerable to an upset.
Let’s break down why the Spurs are a strong play to cover the spread in this one.
Three Reasons the Spurs Can Cover
1. Head-to-Head Dominance
San Antonio has **owned this matchup**, going **8-2 SU in the last 10 meetings** and covering in **8 of those 10 games**. They’ve consistently found ways to exploit the Pelicans’ weaknesses, both at home and on the road.
In their last meeting on **December 8, 2024**, the Spurs won **121-116** outright as a **7-point underdog**. That kind of result speaks volumes about their ability to keep this game close, if not win outright.
2. Pelicans’ Defensive Struggles
New Orleans is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, ranking:
- **29th in opponent field goal percentage (48.3%)**
- **29th in opponent field goals made per game (44.1)**
- **25th in opponent three-point attempts allowed (39.6 per game)**
San Antonio is a **top-10 team in three-point attempts (39.3 per game)**, which means they can take advantage of New Orleans’ weak perimeter defense. If the Spurs shoot well from deep, the Pelicans’ defense will have trouble keeping up.
3. Spurs’ Rebounding Edge
The Spurs have a **major advantage on the glass**, ranking:
- **13th in total rebounds per game (44.7 RPG)**
- **19th in offensive rebounds per game (10.9 ORPG)**
New Orleans, meanwhile, ranks **28th in defensive rebounding** and **26th in offensive rebounds allowed per game**. That means San Antonio should dominate the boards, create second-chance points, and control possessions—crucial for covering as an underdog.
Key Matchups & Betting Angles
Spurs’ Three-Point Shooting vs. Pelicans’ Perimeter Defense
New Orleans **allows too many open threes** (25th in opponent 3PA), while San Antonio is a **top-10 team in three-point volume**. If the Spurs knock down their outside shots, the Pelicans may struggle to keep up offensively.
Scoring Trends & Total Consideration
The total is set at **242.5**, which reflects both teams’ up-tempo style. While the Pelicans have gone **Over in 5 of their last 10 games**, the Spurs’ defense has been improving, making this number a bit inflated.
