The Toronto Raptors, resting key players, visit the San Antonio Spurs in their season finale. Sharp money is backing the Spurs despite public leaning Toronto. Get our expert analysis and free pick against the spread for this April 13th matchup.
Sharp Money Take
The smart money has been creeping toward the Spurs in this season finale matchup, and it’s not hard to see why. With Toronto shutting down key players like RJ Barrett and Isaiah Quickley for rest purposes, they’re essentially playing for ping pong balls at this point. We’ve seen reverse line movement here, with the spread ticking up from -4.5 to -5.5 despite over 60% of tickets backing the Raptors. That’s classic sharp vs. public behavior.
Key Matchup Analysis
Without Victor Wembanyama (shoulder), San Antonio’s offense runs through their veteran backcourt and supporting cast. The Spurs have actually shown surprising life lately, going 6-4 SU in their last 10. Meanwhile, Toronto’s makeshift lineup is struggling to find chemistry, dropping 8 of their last 10 straight up.
The Raptors’ starting five against Phoenix featured Ochai Agbaji and Scottie Barnes carrying the offensive load – Barnes dropped 26 points with 9 rebounds, but it wasn’t enough. San Antonio’s defense (ranked 22nd allowing 116.7 PPG) isn’t scaring anyone, but their offense might find enough holes in Toronto’s 23rd-ranked defense to cover this number.
Situational Factors
This game screams “situational spot” with multiple angles working in San Antonio’s favor:
- Home finale motivation for the Spurs’ young core
- Toronto on the final leg of a West Coast road trip
- Raptors sitting multiple starters (Barrett, Quickley, Poeltl)
- San Antonio potentially getting Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell back from ankle injuries
The Spurs have been much more competitive at home (19-20 SU) compared to their abysmal 13-27 road record. Meanwhile, Toronto’s 12-28 road mark tells you everything you need to know about their performance away from Scotiabank Arena.
Statistical Edges
Looking deeper at the numbers, San Antonio holds some key advantages:
- Rebounding edge: San Antonio ranks 8th in offensive rebounds (12.6) against Toronto’s 29th-ranked defensive rebounding
- Assist rate: Spurs average 28.5 assists (7th) while Toronto allows 28.0 (23rd)
- First quarter scoring: Spurs average 27.2 points (8th) in the opening frame
The total at 228.5 is intriguing considering both teams rank bottom-10 in defensive efficiency. Toronto’s games have gone under in 6 of their last 10, but that was with a more traditional lineup. This patchwork group could lead to defensive breakdowns.
