Nuggets vs. Clippers Point Spread Pick & Analysis

The Nuggets are 8-2 in their last ten compared to the ice-cold Clippers who are just 3-7 in the L10. Additionally Denver is 7-1 straight up in their last eight meetings, so why is LAC favored? However, Jokic is probably going to be sitting this one out.

Notable Injuries

Nuggets

• Jeff Green (Out) Hand
• Nikola Jokic (Questionable) Wrist
• Jamal Murray (Probable) Ankle
• Bruce Brown (Probable) Calf
• Peyton Watson (Out) Adductor
• Collin Gillespie (Out) Lower Leg

Clippers

• Paul George (Out) Hamstring
• Luke Kennard (Out) Calf

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Denver is 28-13 overall. When taking to the road, Denver has a mark of 10-10 and a win percentage of 50%. Currently, the team is 1st in the Western Conference. So far, they are 21-19-1 vs. the spread. In their matchup against Los Angeles, the Denver Nuggets have won 4 straight games and will look to push that mark to 5 in a row.

The Nuggets came away with a win in their last matchup against the Suns, achieving a 126-97 victory as 14-point favorites. Nikola Jokic led the Nuggets with an impressive performance, scoring 21 points on a shooting percentage of 66.7%. In addition to the win, the Nuggets also covered the spread.

Heading into the game, Los Angeles is 22-21 overall. When playing at home, Los Angeles has a mark of 12-9 and a win percentage of 57%. Currently, the team is 6th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 21-21-1 vs. the spread. In Los Angeles’ last five games, the Clippers have a straight-up record of 1-4 while going 1-4 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 3-7 and 4-6 ATS.

In their last game, Los Angeles defeated the Mavericks (113-101). Kawhi Leonard led the team with 33 points on 75.0% shooting. The Clippers also covered the spread with the victory.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Nuggets picked up the 114-104 win over the Clippers. The Nuggets’ margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as 4.0 point favorite. So far this season, the Nuggets have a record of 2-0 vs. the Clippers. The Nuggets have had the better record vs. the spread over the last five games, going 3-2. The team’s average scoring margin in these contests sits at 10 points per game. In these contests, they averaged a combined 220 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

This year, Denver is the 21st-ranked scoring unit in the NBA at 117.0 points per game. Their strong production has come despite being one of the slower-paced teams in the NBA at just 98.4 possessions per game. Denver has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 1st in 3-point shooting percentage at 40.0%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 30.7 attempts per contest. On defense, the Nuggets allow an average of 110.41 points per game, placing them 14th in the league. So far, they have done a good job defending the 3-point arc, as teams are hitting just 34.42% of their looks from deep.

Heading into the game, Nikola Jokic is listed as questionable on the injury report. This season, he leads the team with a per-game scoring average of 24.9. Currently, Jamal Murray is 2nd on the team in scoring at 18.4 points per game.

This season, Los Angeles is averaging just 109.2 points per game, which places them 28th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 97.8 possessions per game. In terms of 3-point shooting, the Clippers are ranked 14th in attempts per game. However, they have been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the league, connecting at a rate of 36.9%. Defensively, the Clippers have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 108.39 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.31%.

A significant injury to take into account for today’s game is that Paul George will be missing from Los Angeles’s lineup, as reported on the injury report. Marcus Morris Sr. will need to assume the role of primary scorer for the team. This season, Morris Sr. has been averaging 13.2 points per game for the Clippers.

Betting Trends

• The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games playing on one day’s rest.
• The Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
• The Clippers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Friday games.
• The Clippers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.