Last Time Out:
The Netherlands beat Georgia 3-0; Ukraine routed Cyprus 4-0.
Previous Meeting:
The sides drew 1-1 on August 11, 2010, at Donbass Arena in Donetsk, Ukraine.
About the Matchup:
This is supposed to be redemption time for the Netherlands, one of the game’s traditional powers. But the Dutch haven’t exactly come into this tournament looking like they’re ready to make up for what went wrong in three of the past four tournaments, as they’ve won just five of their past ten matches prior to this one. The Oranje are in a major tournament for the first time since the 2014 World Cup, but with the competition not being up to snuff as of late, there’s a real worry that the Netherlands might not be ready for a significant jump up in difficulty.
That creates an opportunity for Ukraine, and after a disastrous end to 2020, Ukraine has bounced back without a loss in 2021. Ukraine hasn’t put up fantastic results this year, as they’ve earned four draws and two wins, but they’ve played pretty solid defense and managed to hold defending world champion France to a draw in their first qualifier for next year’s World Cup. When Ukraine has been at full strength, it’s proven a thorn in the side of some of the top teams in Europe; can they get the result they need to allow them to steal control of Group C?
Scouting Netherlands:
The Oranje’s biggest concern is its defense because when things have gone wrong for the Netherlands, they’ve really gone wrong in a hurry. The Turkey side that looked completely incapable of penetrating the Italian defense on Friday looked like world-beaters against the Dutch, as Turkey slotted home four goals against the Oranje back in March in a 4-2 upset. Against Scotland, well-known as a side that blows its chances, the Netherlands were only able to earn a 2-2 draw, and that only because Memphis Depay was able to rescue a point in the final few minutes.
Truth be told, the Netherlands hasn’t really looked like themselves ever since Ronald Koeman departed as coach to take the head job at Barcelona. Koeman left in August 2020, and Frank de Boer hasn’t shown that he’s able to get the job done against top-notch competition. The Netherlands has just six wins in 13 matches under de Boer, and the wins haven’t been all that impressive. The Oranje might have won three of their past four matches to nil, but Latvia, Gibraltar, and Georgia are well known as some of the weakest attacking sides in UEFA. On the other hand, Ukraine knows how to attack, and a side that was breached twice by Scotland might have serious problems here.
Scouting Ukraine:
Looking at how Ukraine ended the 2020 campaign doesn’t tell you much because the Ukrainians were walloped by COVID and had to field a patchwork team in their final Nations League match against Germany before forfeiting to Switzerland. But since the calendar turned, Ukraine has looked much more like the side that took a win and a draw off Portugal in qualifying.
The big benefit for Ukraine is the resurrection of Andrei Yarmolenko, who’s become the second-leading scorer in Ukraine history (behind only current Ukraine coach Andrei Shevchenko) and got back on track by slotting home two goals against Cyprus. The defense has been mostly solid, but its biggest problem is its tendency to concede penalties late in the match. Ukraine could easily have had a pair of wins against Finland and Bahrain, but in each game, the defense gave up a penalty in the final 15 minutes, resulting in a 1-1 draw.
Dan’s Score Prediction:
If any of the six seeded teams are going to find a way to botch its group, the Netherlands appears to be the one. The Dutch managed to screw things up in 2012 with three losses in three matches in what proved to be Bert van Marwijk’s swan song as the Oranje leader, and while I don’t think this will go anywhere near that badly, the Dutch aren’t going to have it all their own way in Group C either.
This one looks like an excellent opportunity for Ukraine to steal a draw and put itself in control of the group, and that’s what I’m going to bank on here. I’ll back a 1-1 draw at +675.
