Veteran handicapper Rich Crew examines the play-in clash between the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings, pointing to Sacramento’s strong recent form and his preferred betting angle on the game.
Sharp Money Take
The market’s been moving on Sacramento since opening, with lines ranging from -4.5 to -5 across major books. This might look like a square play given Sacramento’s higher seed, but there’s more to it when you dig into the head-to-head matchups. Sacramento has dominated the recent series, going 6-4 SU and 6-4 ATS in the last 10 meetings. More importantly, they’ve swept all three games this season, including a dominant 122-98 blowout in Dallas just last month, and a 129-128 squeaker in February. The betting trends tell us Sacramento is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall, which stands in stark contrast to Dallas’ abysmal 1-6 ATS run in their last 7.
Key Matchup Analysis
The biggest story here is Anthony Davis likely returning from his adductor strain, listed as probable for Dallas. But let’s pump the brakes on expecting a dramatic turnaround. The Mavs were just embarrassed by Memphis 132-97 in their last outing, and Davis coming back from injury rarely means 100% effectiveness right away.
Sacramento’s frontcourt of Domantas Sabonis has feasted against Dallas all season, and they’ve managed to neutralize what was left of the Mavs’ offense without Kyrie Irving (out for season with torn ACL). The numbers tell the story: Dallas ranks 19th in scoring (114.2 PPG) while struggling mightily on the glass (24th in rebounding at 43.0 RPG). Meanwhile, Sacramento’s defense has been their weakness (16th, allowing 115.3 PPG), but they’ve found ways to exploit Dallas consistently.
Situational Factors
This Play-In spot couldn’t set up better for the Kings. The stats show they’re playing their best basketball at the right time, going 5-5 in their last 10 games but with a positive scoring differential of +2.60 points during that stretch (scoring 113.60 PPG while allowing just 111.00 PPG). They’ll be without Malik Monk (calf), but they’ve adjusted to his absence over the past week.
Dallas looks completely deflated heading into the postseason. They’re just 4-6 in their last 10 games with a brutal -8.90 point differential (scoring only 107.60 PPG while allowing 116.50 PPG). Their betting trends are equally concerning – Dallas is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games and 1-4 SU in their last 5. The road numbers are especially troubling – they’re just 17-25 straight-up away from home, while Sacramento has managed an identical home/away split at 20-21.
Statistical Edges
The shooting percentages are remarkably close here, with Dallas hitting 47.87% from the field compared to Sacramento’s 47.79%. Where the numbers start to separate is in offensive production, with Sacramento generating 115.73 PPG while Dallas manages 114.20 PPG. The Kings’ defense has been slightly better too, allowing 115.26 PPG to Dallas’ 115.39 PPG.
The rebounding battle looks like a wash on paper, with Sacramento pulling down 44.2 boards per game to Dallas’ 43.04. Neither team has shown dominance on the glass this season, but the real story is in the recent form – Dallas has been significantly worse across the board in their last 10 games, particularly on offense where they’ve dropped from 114.20 PPG on the season to just 107.60 PPG.
