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Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Pick Analysis

By David Schwab

Things are getting interesting heading into Monday’s Game 4 of a best-of-seven matchup between the No. 1 Houston Rockets and the No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves with the Rockets holding the 2-1 series lead. Game time from the Target Center is set for 8 p.m. (ET) on TNT.

Houston at Minnesota Game Overview

The Rockets took care of business on their home court in the first two games of this series. After grinding out a 104-101 victory in Game 1 as 11.5-point favorites with the total staying UNDER 215.5 points, they rolled to a 102-82 romp last Wednesday as 10-point favorites at home to assert their dominance against the No. 8 seed in the West. Maybe it was overconfidence or merely taking an eye off the prize, but Houston looked like the lower seeded team in Saturday’s 121-105 loss to Minnesota as a six-point road favorite. The total went OVER 217 points after staying UNDER in the first two games.

James Harden is arguably one of the top two or three players in the NBA, but he has not come close to playing a part in this series. He scored a game-high 29 points in Saturday’s loss, but he continues to struggle shooting the ball with a 9-for-21 performance from the field. Houston shot 45.7 percent as a team in a losing effort which was a significant improvement from its 36.5 field goal percentage in Game 2.

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Minnesota came into this series with five straight-up victories in its last seven regular-season games while going 4-2-1 against the spread. The Timberwolves’ regular season record against Houston this year was 0-3 both SU and ATS and the last time they beat the Rockets SU before Saturday’s win was in January of the 2016/2017 season.

When the collective star power on this team is playing at the top of its game, Minnesota can go toe-to-toe with any team in the league. This was the case in Game 3 with Jimmy Butler leading the way with 28 points while connecting on 10 of his 19 shots from the field. Karl-Anthony Towns finished the night with 18 points, and 16 rebounds and Andrew Wiggins added 20 points to the winning cause. The Timberwolves shot 50 percent from the floor, and they beat the Rockets at their own game by going 15-for-27 from three-point range.

Get more details: Rockets at Timberwolves NBA Match-Up

Houston at Minnesota Game Betting Trends

–The Rockets are now 0-5 ATS in their last five road games, and they are 4-9 ATS in their previous 13 games coming off an SU loss. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last ten road games.

–The Timberwolves have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win and they have covered ATS in six of their last eight Monday games. The total has gone OVER in 12 of their last 15 games played at home.

–Head-to-head in this conference clash, the favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven games, and the total has gone OVER in the previous four meetings in Minnesota.

Free Pick: Take Houston -6 (DS)
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