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Denver Nuggets vs. Sacramento Kings Odds Analysis – Free Pick

By Cliff Knox

The Sacramento Kings (12-25) host the Denver Nuggets (21-17) in a Western Conference match up that will take place at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, CA at 10 PM ET. The Nuggets are a 5.5-point road favorite with the total line posted on the NBA board at 208.5 points.

The Nuggets were at home in their latest where they got the victory beating the Utah Jazz 99-91. Jamal Murray was the high scorer for Denver scoring 26 points on 9/13 shooting hitting six of his seven 3-pointers and Trey Lyles came off the bench also scoring 26 points. Ricky Rubio and Donovan Mitchell were the high scorers for Utah picking up 15 points and they combined for 12 assists. The Nuggets took control in the 3rd quarter outscoring the Jazz by 22 points and for the game they shot 44.2% from the floor and Utah shot 45.2%. Denver covered the spread as a 6.5-point favorite and the combined 190 points put on the board fell sharply below the closing total line of 208.5. The Jazz have won two straight and 5 of their last seven overall.

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In their last game the Kings hosted the Charlotte Hornets and were embarrassed, getting beaten by 20 points in the 131-111 loss. Zach Randolph was the high scorer for Sacramento with 24 points on 11/18 shooting and he also had 10 rebounds. Nicolas Batum was the high scorer for Charlotte with 21 points on 8 of 12 shooting and every starter for the team put up double figures. The Kings were outscored by 20 points in the first half and for the game they shot 51.7% from the floor, but they allowed the Hornets to shoot 57.3%. Sacramento obviously fell well short of covering the +4.5 point spread with the 20-point losing margin and the lack of defense by both clubs sent this game well OVER the 204 total line. The Kings have lost three in a row all at home where they are now just 6-11 on the season.

The Nuggets are 7-13 on the road this season and they rank 8th in ppg, 15th in 3-pt FG%, and 26th in free throw percentage. On defense Denver ranks 14th in ppg allowed, 19th in 3-pt FG% allowed, and 6th in free-throw percentage allowed.

The Kings are 6-11 at home this season and they rank 30th in ppg, tied for 2nd in 3-pt FG%, and 28th in free throw percentage. On defense Sacramento ranks tied for 18th in ppg allowed, 29th in 3-pt FG% allowed, and 12th in free-throw percentage allowed.

The Nuggets have won both of their games against the Kings this season.

Key Betting Trends

  • The Nuggets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
  • The Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games.
  • The Nuggets have an Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 games.
  • The Kings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • The Kings are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • The Kings have an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 games.

Denver at Sacramento Betting Angles

The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against the Kings.

The Nuggets are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games against the Kings.

The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games between these teams.

In the last 5 games between these teams the Under record is 4-1.

In the last 11 games between these teams in Sacramento the Over record is 8-3.

Free Pick: Denver -5.5 (CK)
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