The Nuggets grabbed Game 3 of these NBA Finals Wednesday night to take a 2-1 series lead and go looking for more when the teams meet for Game 4 Friday night in Miami. Here’s our homework with our free NBA Finals betting pick.
NBA Finals Betting Odds
The NBA Finals betting lines opened Denver at -3 for Game 4, with an over/under of right around 211. Early betting action then edged the Nuggets to -3.5. Denver is now lined at around -900 to win this NBA Championship Series, with Miami now getting +550.
NBA Finals Game 4 Betting Preview
Denver regained the lead in this NBA Finals with a 109-94 Game 3 victory Wednesday night in Miami. The Nuggets took the lead for good late in the second quarter and led 53-48 at the half. Denver then pulled away from there, scoring the first six points of the second half, later leading by 21, on its way to a convincing W and the cash as a three-point favorite. The Nuggets shot 51 percent from the floor Wednesday, held the Heat to just 37 percent FG shooting, dominated the battle on the glass 58-33, and outscored Miami 60-34 in the paint, And that’s how you win an NBA game by 15 points. Also, Game 3 played under a total of 213, as Denver controlled the pace nicely. For the series, the Nuggets are shooting 51 percent from the field, and Miami just 42 percent.
With Wednesday’s win/cover, Denver is now 14-4 SU, 11-7 ATS this postseason. With Wednesday’s loss win, the Heat are now 14-8 SU, 15-8 ATS this postseason. However, they’re also only 2-5 SU their last seven times out. The Nuggets won Game 1 of this NBA Finals last Thursday 104-93, leading by double-digits most of the way, covering at -9. Denver then led Game 2 by eight points through three quarters before Miami mounted a big rally to steal the win. So in actuality, the Nuggets are about one bad eight-minute stretch from leading this series 3-0.
Nuggets-Heat Recent History
Denver is now 8-1, both SU and ATS, over the last nine meetings with the Heat, stretching back through 2021. The Nuggets are also 4-1 in both SU and ATS against Miami this season.
NBA Finals Betting Trends
The Nuggets only played 19-22 both SU and ATS on the road during the regular season, but they’re 5-3 both SU and ATS away from home this postseason. Miami played 27-14 SU but only 14-24 ATS at home during the regular season, and it’s now 7-4 both SU and ATS at the Kaseya Center this postseason.
Totals Report
The unders are 2-1 in this NBA Finals, as the games have averaged 206 total points against an average over/under of 216. Free NBA Pick Denver’s just the better team in this match-up, playing on the road, where spreads are more amenable. We’re betting the Nuggets to take Game 4 Friday night.
