Key Trends
- Dallas ATS Record: 31-32-3 (14-18 on the road)
- San Antonio ATS Record: 27-36-0 (15-15 at home)
- Head-to-Head: Dallas won the last matchup 133-129, covering as 6.5-point underdogs
Dallas’ Last 10 Games:
- SU Record: 3-7
- ATS Record: 3-7
- O/U: 4-6
San Antonio’s Last 10 Games:
- SU Record: 4-6
- ATS Record: 4-6
- O/U: 6-4
Matchup Breakdown
Dallas has been inconsistent lately, losing seven of their last ten games and covering the spread just three times in that span. The Mavericks’ offense has been solid, ranking 11th in the league in points per game (114.8), but their defense has been a liability, allowing 116.1 points per game (22nd).
Injuries are a major factor for Dallas — Kyrie Irving is out for the season, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II are both sidelined, and several key rotation players are questionable. That leaves Dallas shorthanded, especially in the paint.
San Antonio isn’t in much better shape injury-wise with Victor Wembanyama out for the season, but they’ve shown some resilience, winning two of their last three games. Harrison Barnes has been on fire, scoring 29 points on 12-of-14 shooting in his last outing. Devin Vassell’s status (wrist) is uncertain, but Chris Paul and De’Aaron Fox provide enough backcourt depth to keep the offense running smoothly.
Key Stats:
- Dallas ranks 8th in 3PT% (36.8%) but struggles to defend the perimeter (35.8% allowed – 17th).
- San Antonio ranks 6th in free throws made per game (17.8) and 7th in free throw attempts (22.8).
- Dallas allows the 27th-most rebounds per game (46.5), which could give San Antonio’s frontcourt an edge.
Line Movement Insight:
Despite 58% of the betting tickets coming in on Dallas, the line has moved toward San Antonio — a sign of sharp action backing the Spurs. This is a classic “anti-public” spot where the smart money is fading the Mavericks.
