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Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans Free NBA Pick – Betting Odds

By David Schwab
Date: 29/03/2017 8:00 pm
Location: Smoothie King Center
TV: ESPN

Betting Odds



Point Spread: New Orleans -4
Total: 204

Two Southwest Division foes will close out their four-game season series this Wednesday night when the Dallas Mavericks go on the road to face the New Orleans Pelicans. Game time from Smoothie King Center in the Big Easy is set for 8 p.m.

Dallas at New Orleans Game Overview

The Mavericks are coming off Monday night’s tight 92-91 loss to Oklahoma City as two-point home underdogs. It was their third straight-up loss in their last four games, but they have now covered against the spread in four of their last seven games. The total stayed UNDER the closing 203-point line in Monday’s loss and it has stayed UNDER in their last four games. Dallas has gone 10-24 SU on the road this season with a 16-18 record ATS.

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Along with the Mavericks’ inability to score at times is a breakdown at the other end of the court on defense. Both factors contributed to a blown 13-point lead against the Thunder with just four minutes left to play. One of the bright spots in an otherwise dismal run through the regular season has been the play of Harrison Barnes. He leads the team in scoring with 19.5 points per game while shooting 46.7 percent from the field. He ended Monday’s game with just 10 points after combining for 44 points in his previous two starts.

New Orleans has not given up on a spot in the postseason with four victories in its last six games both SU and ATS. It is five games out of eighth place in the West with eight games left to play so the margin for error is rather slim. The Pelicans failed to cover in Monday’s 108-100 loss to Utah as six-point road underdogs; however they return home for Wednesday night’s contest with a four-game winning streak (SU and ATS) in their last four home games.

The addition of DeMarcus Cousins in a late-season trade is one of the main reasons that New Orleans is still playing meaningful games this late in the season; however he remains questionable for this game with a bad ankle. Anthony Davis continues to lead the team in scoring with 27.9 PPG while pulling down a team high 12 rebounds and Cousins is now second in both categories with 22.5 points and 11.5 rebounds a game. The Pelicans are averaging 103.7 PPG while allowing 105.6 points on defense.

Dallas at New Orleans Game Betting Trends

  • The Mavericks are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU loss and they have gone 5-1 ATS in their last six Wednesday games. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight road games.
  • The Pelicans are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a SU losing record and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games at home.
  • Head-to-head in this Southwest Division tilt, the home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings including a perfect 3-0 record (SU and ATS) in first three matchups this season. The total has stayed UNDER in four of the last five games.

Dallas Mavericks at New Orleans Pelicans Prediction

I like New Orleans at home in this one, but with Cousins still listed as questionable, covering could be a reach against a closely matched division opponent. The one trend that has held true for both of these teams this season is a heavy lean towards the UNDER on the total line.

Despite the fact that the Oddsmakers have adjusted the total line down pretty low for Wednesday night, I am still going with the UNDER as my “best bet” pick.

Free Pick: Take the Under 204
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