As the NBA regular season wears on, it becomes a bigger part of many sports bettor’s overall weekly strategies. Once each team has 25 to 30 games in the books, it becomes much easier to separate the money makers from the drains on the bankroll.
While using the spread and total line account for the majority of the money bet on NBA games, using a posted money line from time to time can be an excellent way to supplement your overall approach to betting this sport.
The NBA moneyline offers more risk and lower rewards for betting the favorite. It also offers a higher reward at a lower risk betting on underdogs. They each have a place in the mix if you know where and how to look for value.
A basic listing at an online sportsbook such as BetOnline would look as follows:
| Teams | Spread | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | +4 | +160 |
| Philadlphia 76ers | -4 | -180 |
In this scenario, with the 76ers favored by four points at home, you would have to risk $180 to win $100, taking Philadelphia to win straight-up. Betting Boston to win this game outright, you could win $160 on a $100 bet.
The 10% bookie commission is always charged on a bet using the spread. The commission is built into the moneyline odds with the favorite costing more to bet and the underdog paying less.
The larger the spread, the higher the moneyline odds will be. For example, if Milwaukee is an 11-point home favorite against Indiana, the moneyline odds could be as high as -700 to take the Bucks SU. There is a good chance they will beat the Pacers at home SU, but risking $700 to make $100 does not make betting sense.
The best course of action betting NBA moneylines is to handicap a matchup at face value to determine a SU winner. If your confidence level betting the favorite to win is very high, then the added risk would be worth it. If it appears to be a good opportunity to bypass the spread and take the underdog to win, then the added reward outweighs the risk of going against the favorite.
One NBA betting strategy that does make sense is betting slight underdogs at home. First, look for spreads less than four points. If the underdog is getting points at home, that is an added plus. Suppose San Antonio is a two-point home underdog against the Houston Rockets. The moneyline on the Spurs for that game might be set at +125 with -145 odds posted for Houston.
The two points would not be a factor if you have San Antonio winning this game SU, so it would make much more sense to bet the Spurs on the moneyline with the +125 return as opposed to the -110 juice charged for taking the points.
Current form and betting trends are another factor to take into consideration for a moneyline bet. If a team has just won three or four games in a row SU, it might be a strong play in its next matchup. That also goes for losing streaks as a good team to bet against. Riding winning streaks for a team playing at home its next time out is a plus. Going against losing teams playing their next game on the road is also a solid play.
Another good practice betting NBA moneylines is tracking the numbers across a handful of online books. The lines can vary quite a bit for both the favorite and the underdog. This will also give you a better feel for the correlation between game spreads and game money lines.
