Following a pair of thrilling Game 7 showdowns in the conference semifinal round of this year’s NBA playoffs, the two matchups in the upcoming Eastern and Western conference finals have been set.
Everything has pretty much gone according to plan through the first two rounds with 11 of the 12 best-of-seven series going to the favored team. Heading into the next two series, the opening odds point to another mismatch in each conference final.
Betting the Eastern Conference Finals
Game 1 of this best-of-seven series between the No. 2 Toronto Raptors and the No. 1 Milwaukee Bucks is set to get underway on Wednesday night at 8:30 p.m. on TNT. BetAmerica has opened the Bucks as 6.5-point home favorites with the total set at 218 points. The series price odds for this matchup have Milwaukee set as a -280 favorite.
The Bucks were the top team in the NBA in the regular season at 60-22 straight-up, and they have kept things rolling through the opening two rounds of the playoffs with an 8-1 record both SU and against the spread in series wins against Detroit and Boston. After sweeping the Pistons, the Celtics did manage to win the series opener on the road in the conference semifinals ahead of another four-game run by the Bucks both SU and ATS.
Seven of Milwaukee’s eight playoff wins have been by double figures. It also has a 3-1 edge both SU and ATS in the four-game regular season series this year against the Raptors. Betting the Bucks on the series price offers little value given the high-risk verse low reward. However, should Toronto find a way to win Game 1, the adjusted series price on the Bucks could become a viable betting option.
Surprises in the NBA playoffs are rare, especially when they involve the top teams in the standings. Give credit to Toronto for its second trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. Despite the fact that the Raptors were only two games in back of Milwaukee in the final regular season standings, the actual gap between the two teams remains rather wide.
Betting the Western Conference Finals
This will be the fifth-straight season that the Golden State Warriors advanced to the Western Conference Finals and they are a perfect 4-0 in the first four trips. They needed six games to get past the Los Angeles Clippers in the opening round before ousting the bitter rival Houston Rockets in six games as well. The Warriors won the series-clinching Game 6 last Friday 118-113 as 7.5-point road underdogs without the services of Kevin Durant due to a calf injury.
Even with Durant listed as day-to-day for Tuesday night’s Game 1 at 9 p.m. on ESPN, Golden State has been opened as an eight-point home favorite. The series price odds to advance to its fifth-straight NBA Finals have been set at -540.
They will be facing the No. 3 Portland Trail Blazers, who are coming off the only upset in this year’s playoffs. They got past No. 2 Denver 100-96 in Sunday’s Game 7 as 5.5-point road underdogs. This followed a 4-1 series victory against Oklahoma City in the opening round.
In the four-game series between Portland and Golden State in the regular season, each team won once at home and once on the road both SU and ATS. The total was also split 2-2.
Durant’s calf injury has to be somewhat of a concern after he led the Warriors in scoring during the first two series with 34.2 points a game. In four previous games against the Trail Blazers this season, that average dropped a bit to 28.8 PPG while shooting an impressive 57.5 percent from the field.
Similar to the matchup in the East, there is no value betting the favorite on the opening series price. It is hard to see Golden State losing four games to Portland even with Durant out of the lineup. However, the value betting the Warriors would improve if Portland can find a way to win a few of the early games.
