Philadelphia comes in riding the high of a historic Game 7 win in Boston, but the efficiency profile suggests the market may be underestimating how much harder the Knicks matchup plays. New York’s home splits and offensive rating create a different kind of problem than what the Sixers just solved.
76ers vs. Knicks NBA Prediction & Advanced Efficiency Analysis
The Knicks opened as 7.5-point favorites with a total of 213, and the efficiency gap supports most of that spread. New York holds a 6.5-point edge in net rating, built on an offensive rating of 118.7 that ranks among the league’s best. Philadelphia sits at 114.3 offensively with a defensive rating of 114.4, essentially break-even for the season. The mismatch when New York has the ball — a 4.3-point gap favoring the Knicks offense against the Sixers defense — sets up as the primary driver here. The pace blend projects around 99 possessions, which sits closer to New York’s preferred tempo than Philadelphia’s. That pace context matters because it amplifies efficiency edges rather than drowning them in transition chaos. The total feels low given the offensive firepower on both sides, but the projection suggests the market may be pricing in playoff intensity and half-court execution rather than the regular-season output these teams showed all year.
NBA Betting Odds, Lines & Game Info
| Spread | New York Knicks -7.5 (-105) | Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 (-115) |
| Total | Over 213.0 (-110) | Under 213.0 (-110) |
| Moneyline | New York Knicks -285 | Philadelphia 76ers +235 |
| Date | Monday, May 4th, 2026 |
| Time | 7:30 PM ET |
| Location | TBD |
| TV | NBC, Peacock |
Philadelphia 76ers Efficiency Profile
Philadelphia’s offensive identity runs through Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, who combined for 64 points in the Game 7 win over Boston. Maxey averaged 28.3 points per game this season on 46.2% shooting, while Embiid posted 26.9 points and 7.7 rebounds despite dealing with injury concerns. The Sixers shot 46.2% from the field as a team with a true shooting percentage of 57.3%, which sits below league average for a playoff contender. Their effective field goal percentage of 53.0% reflects solid but not elite shot quality. The turnover rate of 11.8% shows decent ball security, and the assist percentage of 58.9% indicates they’re creating good looks when the offense clicks. On the glass, Philadelphia grabbed 26.2% of available offensive rebounds, which ranks in the middle of the pack. The road split shows 22-19, competent but not dominant. Embiid is listed as probable with a right hip contusion, though he’s only three weeks removed from an appendectomy and took some shots to his surgically-repaired knee against Boston. That context adds uncertainty to his ceiling in this matchup, even if he suits up.
New York Knicks Efficiency Profile
New York’s efficiency profile starts with an offensive rating of 118.7, which creates real problems for teams that can’t match that output. Jalen Brunson leads the offense at 26.0 points and 6.8 assists per game, while Karl-Anthony Towns provides 20.1 points and 11.9 rebounds. The Knicks shot 47.8% from the field with a true shooting percentage of 59.0%, both well above league average. Their effective field goal percentage of 55.7% shows they’re getting quality looks consistently. The assist percentage of 64.3% ranks among the best in the league, meaning they’re moving the ball and creating open shots rather than forcing contested attempts. On the glass, New York grabbed 29.4% of offensive rebounds, which gives them a meaningful edge in second-chance opportunities. The defensive rating of 112.3 isn’t elite, but it’s good enough when paired with that offensive firepower. At home, the Knicks went 30-10, and that home-court advantage shows up in both the efficiency numbers and the win column. Jeremy Sochan is listed as probable after a possible hamstring tweak in the Game 6 blowout, but he’s unlikely to play meaningful minutes even if available.
Matchup Breakdown
The offensive rebounding gap stands out immediately. New York’s 29.4% offensive rebounding rate against Philadelphia’s defensive glass creates a 3.2-percentage-point edge that translates to extra possessions and second-chance points. Over 99 possessions, that gap becomes real scoring value. The effective field goal percentage difference of 2.7 points favors New York as well, meaning the Knicks are getting better looks on a per-shot basis. When you combine that with the 4.3-point mismatch when New York has the ball — their 118.7 offensive rating against Philadelphia’s 114.4 defensive rating — the foundation for the spread becomes clear. The Sixers do have a slight edge when they have the ball, with their 114.3 offensive rating facing New York’s 112.3 defensive rating for a 2.0-point advantage, but that’s not enough to offset what happens on the other end. The turnover rates are essentially identical, so there’s no edge to extract from live-ball turnovers or transition opportunities. The pace blend of 99 possessions sits closer to New York’s season average of 97.7 than Philadelphia’s 100.4, which means the Knicks control the game script and tempo.
Recent Form and Betting Context
Philadelphia just completed the NBA’s 14th comeback from a 3-1 deficit, beating Boston 109-100 in Game 7 on the road. That win required everything from Embiid, Maxey, and VJ Edgecombe, who combined for 87 points. The emotional and physical toll of that series matters, especially with Embiid dealing with multiple injury concerns. New York, meanwhile, closed out Atlanta with a 140-89 blowout in Game 6, resting key players and avoiding the grind of a Game 7. That rest advantage may not show up in the box score, but it’s real. The clutch numbers favor New York slightly, with the Knicks posting a 61.8% win rate in clutch situations compared to Philadelphia’s 56.1%. Both teams execute late, but New York has been slightly better in those moments. The Sixers went 23-18 in clutch games, while the Knicks went 21-13, showing both teams can close but New York does it more efficiently.
The Statinator’s Model Play
My model projects New York by 5.2 points, which creates a 2.3-point gap against the 7.5-point spread. That’s not massive, but it’s meaningful. The stronger case sits on the total. The projection lands at 227.7, a full 14.7 points above the posted number of 213. The pace blend of 99 possessions, combined with both teams’ offensive ratings and shooting efficiency, points to a game that stays in the 220s rather than the low 210s. The market appears to be pricing in playoff defense and half-court execution, but these efficiency profiles suggest both offenses have enough firepower to push past that number. The offensive rebounding edge for New York and the effective field goal gap both support additional scoring opportunities. Philadelphia showed they can score in bunches when Maxey and Embiid are rolling, and New York’s offensive rating suggests they’ll get theirs regardless of defensive pressure. The over offers the cleaner angle here, backed by the efficiency data and pace context that the 213 total doesn’t fully account for.
STATINATOR’S MODEL PLAY: Over 213.0 – The 14.7-point gap between the market total and projected output creates strong value.
