The middle of February marks the NBA’s annual All-Star Game. Once action resumes after the break, this time of the year also marks the start of the stretch run to the playoffs. With a little less than two months left in the regular season, there are a few new twists and turns that need to be navigated when betting the games.
Successful NBA handicapping always comes down to the actual matchup at hand. Each team’s current playing form should be at the top of the list. Current injuries are another big factor. However, this is the time of the season when motivation plays a much more prominent role in the process.
You have teams at the top of each conference’s standings jockeying for playoff position. The next set of clubs are battling just to make the playoffs. The third tier is made up of teams that are still mathematically in the hunt for a playoff spot but basically riding out the string. The final group of teams might be better off losing to enhance their lottery position for the top pick in the next NBA draft.
Another twist this time of the year is the actual starting lineup for each game. Contending teams are also concerned with the ongoing wear and tear an 82-game regular-season schedule has on their top players. Rest can come in the form of lower playing minutes to take the whole night off.
It becomes crucial to find a reliable source that can sort out the starting lineups for each team in any game you plan to bet on. It will be tough to cash in when the team you bet on suddenly decides to rest their top three players. Tracking injuries is also substantial. Even the slightest bump or bruise will keep a star player out of the lineup for a game or two.
Getting to know each team’s approach to rest this time of the year can be a huge help. Some head coaches will routinely sit players as part of their load management strategy. Every once and a while, you will come across a healthy scratch that was unexpected. This could actually provide a significant edge over the online books if your timing is right.
Along with thoroughly evaluating a particular team’s approach to playing any game over the next two months, you should also keep an eye out for value-added betting options. Maybe it makes more sense only to bet the first half of a game if you believe a team is going to rest players in the second half.
For example, the favorite may build up a huge lead heading into halftime only to let it slip away over the final two quarters. That team will most likely still win, but the underdog will be in a much better position to pull off the backdoor cover against a big game spread.
This is also the time of the season when betting the favorite on the NBA money line might make more sense. As long as you remain confident that the favored team will still win the game straight-up, you will be in a position to cash in.
Most of the top online books release prop bet options for every NBA game daily. These games and player props can offer some of the best betting value on the board if you know where and how to look. These betting options are often posted several hours before tipoff to allow ample time to find one or two high-valued plays.
