Xfinity 500

Xfinity 500 Betting Analysis & Race Predictions | November 3, 2024

By Deborah
Date: 03/11/2024 2:00 pm
Location:
TV:

Track: Martinsville Speedway

Channel: NBC

Recap of Last Weekend’s Action

Joey Logano secured his championship berth last weekend in Las Vegas, a relief after finishing a disappointing 28th at Homestead. Kyle Larson also had a tough race, finishing 13th after a blown tire early on and a late spin. Tyler Reddick took the checkered flag in an exciting final lap pass, outpacing Ryan Blaney to clinch his spot in the championship four—a career milestone for Reddick. Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, and Chase Elliott rounded out the top five, with William Byron, Alex Bowman, AJ Allmendinger, Carson Hocevar, and Ryan Preece completing the top ten. Hamlin led 21 laps and nearly took the win but struggled to recover in the final laps.

For Larson, the Homestead chaos meant a plunge from the lead to below the cut line heading into the final Round of 8 race. Despite climbing back to second after falling to 34th, his day ended in a collision, putting him in a must-finish-high situation at Martinsville.

Martinsville Speedway Preview

Martinsville Speedway represents the final opportunity for drivers to secure a championship spot. Known as “The Paperclip,” Martinsville’s 0.526-mile track with 12-degree banked turns will challenge drivers with its short, narrow design. Lap traffic often plays a major role, and drivers face substantial wear on brakes and tires. As one of the shorter tracks, it doesn’t take much to get lapped, but drivers also have a better chance of racing back up the leaderboard.

Odds and Value Picks

Several drivers stand out with a history of strong finishes at Martinsville. Joey Logano holds the best recent average finish at 5.3, though he has yet to secure a win. Ryan Blaney and Kyle Larson trail closely, each with a win in the last three years. William Byron also boasts two wins and the fourth-best average finish. With one win in 17 starts, Blaney’s average finish of 8.8 leads active drivers at Martinsville, and he’s in a must-win situation. Denny Hamlin, a five-time Martinsville winner, needs a high finish to stay in the hunt, holding an average finish of 10.2 across 37 starts.

Top Picks for Xfinity 500

  • Winner: Denny Hamlin
  • Mid-Range Pick: Brad Keselowski
  • Dark Horse: Chase Briscoe

Chase Briscoe has a solid record at Martinsville, boasting two top-five and five top-ten finishes in just seven starts. Although he’s had a tough season, his short-track skills make him a strong dark horse candidate. Brad Keselowski, known for his superspeedway prowess, has adapted well to Martinsville with two wins and an eighth-best average finish. Denny Hamlin, with a five-win record at Martinsville, is racing to keep his championship hopes alive, and he’ll need a near-flawless race to secure a final four spot.

Current Round of 8 Standings

  • Tyler Reddick (locked in)
  • Joey Logano (locked in)
  • Christopher Bell
  • William Byron
  • Kyle Larson
  • Denny Hamlin
  • Ryan Blaney
  • Chase Elliott

Xfinity Nascar Prediction

Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott face must-win scenarios, while Hamlin is 18 points below the cutoff, requiring a high finish or a win to advance. Larson’s seven-point deficit behind the cutoff adds pressure, while Byron, just above Larson, needs a strong showing to secure his spot. Expect an intense showdown as drivers battle for the remaining two championship spots in Sunday’s race at Martinsville Speedway.

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