On Sunday, NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to one of the most prestigious venues in all motorsports at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. However, NASCAR’s return to Indianapolis will have a different twist this weekend as drivers will compete on the road course for the first time in history. Often referred to as the Indianapolis Grand Prix, the road course at Indy features a 14-turn 2.439-mile layout that utilizes the traditional oval front-stretch and entrance into turn 3, while the rest of the surface features non-traditional parts of the infield course. Similar to the likes of the ROVAL (Charlotte) and Daytona RC, Indianapolis will provide its own road course hybrid, which will take place on Sunday with the inaugural running of the Verizon 200.
Obviously, road course racing has become more common at NASCAR’s highest division. The Cup Series has already competed at five different road courses this season which includes 1st-time events at Circuit of the Americas and Road America. While Indianapolis will provide another new look for drivers, bettors can take comfort in a pretty solid performance baseline from previous road course events. Back in February, Christopher Bell delivered the first surprise win of the season when he conquered the road course at Daytona. Since then, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott have taken home the checkered flags at all other road course venues. Larson and Elliott have finished 1st or 2nd in three of the last four road course races, and both own two road course victories on the season.
After another 1-2 finish last week at Watkins Glen, Elliott and Larson once again enter Sunday’s Verizon 200 as overwhelming favorites. Due to both driver’s dominance in recent races, I don’t believe we have significant reason to expect any major differences. Unless strategy shakes things up in the closing laps, this could easily be another battle between Larson and Elliott. Unlike traditional oval racing, the driver is able to make the most time on the stopwatch at road courses, and both Elliott/Larson have completely separated themselves from the rest of the competition. I would love to point bettors to different betting options with better value, but in reality, the most probable options will once again revolve around the likes of Larson and Elliott.
Despite the fact Larson and Elliott will saturate win (futures) odds, there are still plenty of viable ways to yield a profit this weekend. Personally, I love H2H match-ups at road course races because you can really identify sharp plays based on skill sets. For example, Christopher Bell has proven to be an excellent road course driver this year. Following the upset win at Daytona, Bell delivered another near-upset at Road America, which resulted in a 2nd place finish. Bell is currently getting 3-1 odds to finish in the Top 5, which has some realistic value. Other drivers like Joey Logano and Ross Chastain have consistently produced strong results at the road course races this year despite not necessarily being known as road course talents.
In the past few weeks, odds-makers have released numerous H2H pairings and prop bet opportunities which should be given some extra consideration this week. While we may not be able to get great value on futures (win) bets, there are plenty of other avenues that will produce a profit. Guys like Austin Cindric and AJ Allmendinger will be joining the Cup Series competition this week. Both drivers are established road course talents, and perhaps more importantly, they both have experience on this Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course layout. As a result, I think both drivers should be given some betting attention in the way of H2H match-ups and outright prop bets.
