Last week, Martin Truex Jr became the first driver this season to score multiple victories in the Cup Series with his victory at Martinsville Speedway. Going into last week’s race, I pointed out several reasons why Truex would be a top contender and even urged everyone to take the +600 opening betting odds. Hopefully, everyone followed my advice and was able to cash a winning ticket! This week I am ready to put our focus towards another prime betting opportunity as the Cup Series visits Richmond Raceway for the running of the Toyota Owners 400.
Just like last week’s race at Martinsville, Cup Series teams will utilize the 750HP rules package that is used on the smaller tracks. Richmond Raceway is a ¾ mile D-shaped oval with relatively flat corners that produces excellent short track racing. Drivers will have to patiently roll the corners and try to avoid rear-tire spin to maintain long-run speed. Though Martinsville and Richmond are two totally different tracks, the driving styles required to succeed at both tracks are relatively similar. Before last week’s race at Martinsville, Martin Truex had won two of the three prior races at the half-mile paperclip. Similarly this week, Truex will enter Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 having won two of the last three races at Richmond and should have another excellent opportunity yet again.
Both of Truex’s victories (Phoenix and Martinsville) have been produced under the 750HP package. When you combine performance under this package to Truex’s track history, nobody is more deserving than being ranked as the top threat again this week. Obviously, it’s hard to pull off back-to-back victories with the parity in the Cup Series. If Truex is not able to get the job done again this Sunday, I would expect guys like Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin to be among the top competitors. Hamlin nearly pulled off the victory last week at Martinsville and continues to post top 5 finishes on a weekly basis. Hamlin is a 3-time winner at Richmond and probably been the most consistent driver this season at the front of the field.
Meanwhile, Kyle Larson may be the sharper pick among the “favorites.” Larson is not necessarily known for his short/flat-track skills. However, Larson has performed well throughout his career at Richmond. Not only does he have a 2017 victory on his resume, but he has never finished outside the top 16 in 12 career starts. Larson has posted finishes of 7th or better in five of his last seven starts at Richmond. All of those stats were produced during Larson’s tenure with Chip Ganassi Racing, and we have already witnessed how much better Larson has performed in better equipment this season with Hendrick Motorsports. As a result, I think Larson should be among the guys to beat on Sunday when the green flag waves.
Traditionally, Richmond Raceway has not produced many surprise winners. Bettors would have to scroll back nearly 15 years to find true “surprise” winners that ranged outside of 20-1 odds, with the vast majority labeled at less than 10-1 odds. Simply put, Richmond routinely yields to NASCAR’s best drivers, and that is the expectation again this week. If you do want to gamble on a long shot, I would throw out the name Austin Dillon for dark horse purposes. Dillon and the entire Richard Childress Racing organization has been performing well this season. More importantly, the driver of the #3 car has produced a pair of 6th place finishes and a 4th place result in his last three starts at Richmond. If you consider some of the struggles among the top competitors like Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, and Brad Keselowski, it would not be too surprising to see Dillon sneak his way into another borderline top 5 finish if things go his way. At 50-1 odds, Dillon produces tremendous value for a live underdog, and I would also keep him on your betting radar for prop and H2H type bets as well!
