Brad Keselowski posted his first Sprint Cup victory of the season this past Sunday with a first-place finish at Fontana. Defending champ Kevin Harvick stayed hot with a second-place finish and Kurt Busch took third after starting from the pole. My top value pick for that race was Matt Kenseth at 10/1, but the No. 20 car had a long day with a 31st-place finish after starting third.
The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Sunday’s race along with my top value pick of the week based on odds from Bovada.
Jimmie Johnson tops this week’s list as a 7/2 favorite to win Sunday’s race. He is coming off a ninth-place finish last week at Fontana, but the No. 48 car has already won this season with a victory at Atlanta after opening the season with a fifth-place finish at Daytona. The main reason that Johnson is favored this week is a stellar track record at Martinsville. Over the course of his storied career, he has posted eight Sprint Cup victories and he is coming off a second-place finish in last year’s race.
The second-favorite to win this week’s race is Kevin Harvick at 9/2 betting odds. At the very least you should bet on him to finish in the top three considering that the No. 4 car has now placed first or second in its last eight Sprint Cup point races dating back to the end of last season. So far this year, it has finished first at both Las Vegas and Phoenix while taking second in the other three races. The only thing working against Harvick this Sunday is the fact that he has failed to finish inside the top five in his last six Sprint Cup races at Martinsville.
Much was made about Jeff Gordon’s farewell tour around the Sprint Cup circuit in his final full season of racing, but so far it has been a nonevent with just two top-10 finishes in the first five events. That could all change this Sunday as an 11/2 third-favorite to win this race. Current form may be working against the No. 24 car, but Gordon has won at this track eight times during his storied Sprint Cup career including a first-place finish in the second race at Martinsville in 2013. He also finished third in this race in 2013 and second in the second race here last season. Looking back at all the results at this track, his average finishing position is a lofty 6.8.
Jimmie Johnson No.48
7/2
Kevin Harvick No.4
9/2
Jeff Gordon No.24
11/2
Denny Hamlin No.11
6/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. No.88
10/1
Kurt Busch No.41
10/1
Brad Keselowski No.2
11/1
Brendan Gaughan No.62
12/1
Joey Logano No.22
12/1
Clint Bowyer No.15
16/1
Matt Kenseth No.20
16/1
Carl Edwards No.19
25/1
Kasey Kahne No.5
25/1
Ryan Newman No.31
28/1
Martin Truex Jr. No.78
33/1
Jamie McMurray No.1
40/1
Kyle Larson No.42
40/1
Tony Stewart No.14
40/1
Chase Elliott No.25
50/1
David Ragan No.18
66/1
Paul Menard No.27
66/1
Greg Biffle No.16
75/1
A.J. Allmendinger No.47
100/1
Austin Dillon No.3
100/1
Aric Almirola No.43
200/1
Danica Patrick No.10
200/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. No.17
200/1
Justin Allgaier No.51
300/1
Sam Hornish Jr. No.9
300/1
Trevor Bayne No.6
300/1
Brett Moffitt No.55
500/1
Casey Mears No.13
500/1
Ron Hornaday No.30
500/1
Alex Bowman No.7
1000/1
Alex Kennedy No.33
1000/1
Chris Buescher No.34
1000/1
Cole Whitt No.35
1000/1
David Gilliland No.38
1000/1
J.J Yeley No.23
1000/1
Jeb Burton No.26
1000/1
Josh Wise No.98
1000/1
Landon Cassill No.40
1000/1
Matt Dibenedetto No.83
1000/1
Michael Annett No.46
1000/1
Mike Bliss No.32
1000/1
