Dale Earnhardt Jr. became the eighth different driver to win a Sprint Cup point race this season with his victory last week at Talladega. Once again, Jimmie Johnson was right in the mix in second place and Paul Menard finished third. I went with Martin Truex Jr. at +1800 betting odds as my top value pick and he made a strong run at winning the race with a fifth-place finish.
The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Saturday night’s race at Kansas along with my top value pick of to win this week based on betting odds from Sportsbook.ag.
Kevin Harvick placed eighth in last week’s race, which was just the third time in 10 previous point races this season that the No. 4 car did not finish first or second. With a track record like that, it is easy to see why the 2014 defending Sprint Cup Champion has been listed as a +350 favorite to lay claim to his third checkered flag of the season. This team has already won at Las Vegas and Phoenix and it remains at the top of the current Sprint Cup standings with a total of 394 points. The value in these odds is also there with Harvick’s recent performance at this track. He started from the pole in last year’s race and ended-up second. This followed a victory at Kansas in the second race of the 2013 Sprint Cup season.
There are two drivers listed at +600 odds to win on Saturday night starting with Jimmie Johnson. Last Sunday’s second-place finish was the six time in 10 races that the No. 48 car placed in the top five. This impressive run also includes victories at Atlanta and Texas to push this team into second-place in the standings with 342 total points. Johnson fell all the way to 40th in his last trip around this track in 2014, but this followed a string of 11-straight top-10 finishes in a Sprint Cup race at Kansas. He last won here in 2011 and his average finishing position is 9.5.
Kurt Busch is the other second-favorite at +600. He followed-up a stirring victory at Richmond with a 12th-place finish in last Sunday’s race. The 41 car is now eighth in the standings with a total of 255 points. While Busch is consistently at the top of the list in betting odds for these races, he has finished outside the top 10 seven times this season. This has to make you question the value in these lofty odds. His past track record at Kansas continues to drain even more value out of these odds with just one top-five finish in 18 career Sprint Cup races at this track for an average finishing position of 19.0.
- Kevin Harvick 7/2
- Jimmie Johnson 6/1
- Kurt Busch 6/1
- Brad Keselowski 8/1
- Jeff Gordon 8/1
- Joey Logano 8/1
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10/1
- Matt Kenseth 12/1
- Kasey Kahne 15/1
- Carl Edwards 18/1
- Denny Hamlin 18/1
- Martin Truex Jr. 20/1
- Jamie McMurray 30/1
- Kyle Larson 30/1
- Ryan Newman 50/1
- Erik Jones 75/1
- Tony Stewart 75/1
- Austin Dillon 100/1
- Clint Bowyer 100/1
- David Ragan 100/1
- Greg Biffle 100/1
- Paul Menard 100/1
- Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1
- AJ Allmendinger 300/1
- Aric Almirola 300/1
- Danica Patrick 300/1
- Ricky Stenhouse 500/1
- Sam Hornish Jr. 500/1
- Trevor Bayne 500/1
- Ty Dillon 500/1
