Pure Michigan 400 Betting Preview – Picks

By Clayton Duke
Date: 16/08/2015 2:30 pm
Location: Michigan International Speedway
TV: NBCSN

Joey Logano started the season with a win at Daytona and he finally joined the list of multiple Sprint Cup winners this season with a victory on Watkins Glen’s road course this past Sunday. Kyle Busch stayed hot with a second place finish and Kevin Harvick added yet another Top 3 finish to this season’s resume. My top valued favorite for last week’s race was Carl Edwards at +1200 and ran well with an eighth-place finish.

The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Sunday’s Sprint Cup along with my top value pick based on betting odds provided by Bovada.

Favorites

It has been quite a while since last season’s defending Sprint Cup Champion Kevin Harvick has made his way to the Winner’s Circle since posting back-to-back victories in early March, but this could be his week to add another win as a +500 favorite for Sunday’s race. The No. 4 car has been the model of consistency all season long with 13 Top 5 finishes in 22 previous point races. Harvick actually posted one of his worst finishes of the year in the first race this season at Michigan when he ended-up 29th, but this followed a string of four-straight second-place runs in a Sprint Cup race at this track.

The second-favorite to win on Sunday at +600 betting odds is without a doubt the hottest Sprint Cup driver over the past month or so. Going back to Kyle Busch’s victory on the road course at Sonoma on June 28, he has won four times in seven races. An early season injury forced him to miss half of the first 22 races, but behind the wheel of the No. 18 car he has obviously made up for lost time. Busch fell to 43rd in the first race at Michigan this year as a result of a wreck and going back over his last seven races here since winning this event in 2011; he has only posted one other Top 5 finish.

Jimmie Johnson went on his own tear this season starting in early April with three victories and another four Top 5 finishes in eight point-race events. Overall, he is just one of two drivers to have four victories on the year and the No. 48 team is currently sitting in fourth place in the Sprint Cup standings with a total of 747 points. Johnson has been listed as a +800 third-favorite to notch win No. 5 this week. He did win the first race at Michigan in 2014, but he is coming off a ninth-place run in this event last season followed by a 19th-place finish in the first race this season here.

Odds to Win the Pure Michigan 400
  • Carl Edwards 7/1
  • Jimmie Johnson 7/1
  • Denny Hamlin 8/1
  • Kyle Busch 8/1
  • Jeff Gordon 9/1
  • Kurt Busch 9/1
  • Matt Kenseth 10/1
  • Kevin Harvick 12/1
  • Tony Stewart 12/1
  • Greg Biffle 20/1
  • Brad Keselowski 25/1
  • Dale Earnhardt Jr. 25/1
  • Kasey Kahne 30/1
  • Clint Bowyer 35/1
  • David Ragan 35/1
  • Joey Logano 35/1
  • Ryan Newman 35/1
  • Jeff Burton 40/1
  • Juan Pablo Montoya 40/1
  • Martin Truex Jr. 40/1
  • Paul Menard 40/1
  • Brian Vickers 50/1
  • David Reutimann 50/1
  • Mark Martin 50/1
  • A.J. Allmendinger 60/1
  • Jamie McMurray 60/1
  • Marcos Ambrose 80/1
  • Regan Smith 125/1
  • Trevor Bayne 200/1
  • Bobby Labonte 250/1
  • Casey Mears 300/1
  • Andy Lally 500/1
  • Dave Blaney 500/1
  • David Gilliland 500/1
  • David Stremme 500/1
  • Erik Darnell 500/1
  • J.J. Yeley 500/1
  • Joe Nemechek 500/1
  • Landon Cassill 500/1
  • Mike Bliss 500/1
  • Mike Skinner 500/1
  • Robby Gordon 500/1
  • T.J. Bell 500/1
  • Todd Bodine 500/1
  • Tony Raines 500/1
  • Travis Kvapil 500/1

Pure Michigan 400 Free Pick

Moving down this week’s list a bit, I decided to go with Dale Earnhardt Jr. at +1000 betting odds as this week’s top valued contender. He has already posted two victories this season at Talladega and Daytona to go along with another nine finishes in the top five. The No. 88 team is holding down the third spot in the standings with 750 total points. The main reason that I like Dale Jr. this week is a solid record at Michigan in recent years. In 2012, he snapped what appeared to be a never ending winless streak with a win here and in last year’s event he placed fifth. Adding even more value to these odds is a second-place finish in the first race at Michigan this season.

Bovada

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