Last weekend, Kevin Harvick swept both races at Michigan International Speedway, earning his 5th and 6th victories of the season. Before both races, I advised bettors that Harvick would be the deserving favorite through identifiable performance trends combined with Harvick’s strong track history at Michigan. While last weekend’s outcomes could have been expected, the Cup Series will host the first race on the Daytona International Speedway Road Course on Sunday, where expectations are anybody’s guess. Not only has the Cup Series never raced on the road course at Daytona, but they will not get any practices prior to the green flag. As a result, this is a race that anybody can win that is sure to yield chaos from the best drivers in the Cup Series!
From a betting standpoint, I would be lying if I described Sunday’s Go Bowling 235 as an ideal betting situation. In fact, this is the opposite of an ideal betting scenario. We don’t have any track history or driver experience on the Daytona road course, making it difficult to predict the drivers worthy of betting attention this weekend. What I can tell bettors is that we can draw comparisons and strategize for the best way to attack this weekend’s races. For starters, Daytona’s road course has a similar layout to the ROVAL at Charlotte. There are not many heavy braking zones outside of turn one and the chicanes on both straightaways. We could look at places like Sonoma and Watkins Glen as reference points for road course racing, but the similarity for Daytona’s road course most closely aligns with the ROVAL.
In terms of betting targets, Chase Elliott and Martin Truex are undeniably the best two road course drivers in the sport right now. Elliott and Truex both have three victories at road course venues since the start of the 2017 season. No other drivers have more than one victory during that same stretch. I understand current betting odds are relatively conservative for both Truex and Elliott. However, I believe that both drivers can be targeted aggressively in H2H formats against all other competitors. The only exception to that rule is to avoid H2H match-ups against Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin, who are the hottest two drivers in the sport with 11 combined victories on the season. Otherwise, Elliott and Truex should be targeted in all other match-ups. I personally believe the layout of Daytona favors Martin Truex more than Chase Elliott. However, both drivers should be given the utmost betting respect this weekend.
One of my favorite dark horses for Sunday’s race at Daytona includes the No. 14 of Clint Bowyer. Bowyer has shown more speed than the finishes indicate in recent weeks. More importantly, Bowyer is one of the most underrated road course drivers in the Cup Series with 5 top 5 finishes in the last eight starts at road course venues. I like the raw speed the No. 14 team has shown, and I believe it will relay into an excellent opportunity for Bowyer to challenge at the front of the field. Bowyer opened at 16 to 1 odds at BetOnline, which is sufficient value, and I expect his odds may get even better as the week progresses. I also have a couple of other dark horses on my radar this week, including drivers that should yield excellent fantasy value. I hit the main event winner in last week’s Xfinity Series race which I posted on twitter, and I believe Sunday’s Go Bowling 235 will be another excellent fantasy opportunity as well.
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