NASCAR’s Cup Series makes a return trip to the West Coast this week for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 on the road course at Sonoma Raceway. The green flag for Sunday’s race on FOX Sports 1 is set to wave at 3 p.m. (ET).
Toyota/Save Mart 350 – Top Value Bets
I scored a big win two weeks ago at Michigan with Joey Logano cashing in on his longer +1050 betting odds as a top-valued contender to pick up his second Cup Series victory of the year. Kurt Busch finished second, and Martin Truex Jr. rounded out the top three drivers at Michigan.
Being that this Sunday’s race shifts formats to a road course, I am looking for a trio of drivers that offer the best value in 5Dimes online sportsbook’s NASCAR futures to win.
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Toyota/Save Mart 350 – Top Favorite – Martin Truex Jr. + 475
Truex won the Cup Series racing title in 2017, and he has been running in championship form this season as well. With the victory at Charlotte in late May combined with previous wins at Richmond and Dover, he is one of five drivers with multiple victories this season in a point race. He has also guided his No. 19 Toyota to three other finishes inside the top five with the strong effort at Michigan.
The main reason I am going with Truex this week as opposed to Kevin Harvick as a +350 favorite to win is his past success on this road course. Along with last season’s victory at Sonoma, he also won this race in 2013 and finished fifth in 2016. Proven ability to win, making both the right and left turns are a major plus this week.
Toyota/Save Mart 350 – Top Contender – Kurt Busch +1100
As the older brother of NASCAR’s top driver, it must be hard to race in his long shadow. Truth be told, Kurt is having a pretty successful season of his own racing the No. 1 Chevrolet. Through the first 15 point races, he has nine finishes inside the top 10. Four of those runs were in the top five, including last week’s second-place effort. His racing team is ranked eighth in the current Cup Series standings with 485 total points.
The reason Kurt showed up on my betting radar this week at contending odds is a string of six finishes inside the top seven drivers in his last eight race at Sonoma. This successful run started with a victory here in 2011.
Toyota/Save Mart 350 – Top Longshot – Aric Almirola +6600
There were a number of interesting choices at longshot odds for Sunday’s race. You can get Ryan Blaney at +2750 or Kyle Larson at +3500, but I decided to go even deeper down the list to find a driver that can shock the field off an oval track. Almirola only has one finish this season inside the top five (fourth at Phoenix), but more than half of his runs have ended up in the top 10. This effort has been strong enough to move the No. 10 Ford into 11th place in the standings with a total of 426 points.
When it comes to his limited racing experience at Sonoma, Almirola’s first six efforts were forgettable. Four of those runs failed to crack the top 20 drivers on the list. He was able to break into the top 10 (eighth) at Sonoma last year, which is a step in the right direction. I am more focused on his current racing form and Sunday’s potential payout at these longer odds.
