NASCAR’s Monster Energy Cup Series continues onto ISM Raceway in Phoenix as part of its three-race West Coast swing for Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500. The green flag for Sunday’s main event is set to wave at 3:30 p.m. (ET) and FOX will carry the broadcast nationally.
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Kevin Harvick has already matched his Cup Series win total from 2017 with a victory last Sunday at Las Vegas coming off a run to the checkered flag in Atlanta two weeks ago. Kyle Busch was second in his hometown race, and Kyle Larson rounded out the top three finishers. Joey Logano was my top-valued pick to win at Las Vegas at +1350 betting odds, but the best he could manage was a seventh-place finish.
The following is a look at a trio of the top favorites to win this Sunday’s race in Phoenix along with my top-valued pick at longer odds as provided by 5Dimes.
Kevin Harvick +275
Harvick’s high odds to win for the third-straight week is called riding the hot hand. The Oddsmakers at 5Dimes have grown a bit leery about the big returns the No. 4 Ford has produced over the past two weeks by squeezing most of the value out of Harvick for this race at +275. Add in the fact that winning that three Cup Series events in a row are a rare trick in NASCAR, and you may want to back off this play. However, Phoenix has been one of his favorite stops on the Cup Series schedule in recent years. Going back to the 2012 season, Harvick has taken home five checkered flags including victories in this race three-straight years starting in 2014. His average finishing position here is 9.7.
NASCAR Betting: Wager on who will win plus driver vs. driver match-up bets! All available at Bovada
Kyle Busch +550
With last Sunday’s second-place run at Las Vegas, the No. 18 Toyota moved to sixth place in the Cup Series standings with a total of 104 points. This finish was Busch’s first in the top five this season after finishing 25th at Daytona and seventh in Atlanta. He has led a total of 19 laps in his first three events. There is some added value in his odds heading into this race with four runs inside the top five at this track in his last five races here. However, it is important to note that Busch has not won a Cup Series event at Phoenix since 2005 and his average finishing position is 12.2 over the course of his racing career.
Kyle Larson +750
Staying true to last week’s finishing order, Larson is the third-favorite to win on Sunday. His No. 42 Chevrolet continues to move in the right direction over the first three races after finishing 19th in the Daytona 500. Larson placed ninth at Atlanta before last week’s third-place run. He was one of three drivers previous season with four or more victories on the year, and he is currently in seventh place in this year’s standings. This campaign is Larson’s fifth season racing full time in the Cup Series, and his resume at Phoenix includes a third-place finish in the second race here in 2016 followed by a second-place run in this race last season.
