The final race in the second elimination round of NASCAR’s 2019 Cup Series 10-race playoff takes place this Sunday afternoon at Kansas Speedway. The running of the Hollywood Casino 400 is set for a 2:30 p.m. start on NBC.
Hollywood Casino 400 – Top Value Bets
Monday’s rain-delayed playoff race at Talladega really shook things up in this year’s title race with Ryan Blaney taking the checkered flag over Ryan Newman in a photo finish. Denny Hamlin turned in a good run to finish third. I went with the defending champ Joey Logano at +800 odds to win as my top-valued favorite, but he faded to 11th in the final running order.
5Dimes online sportsbook has posted its betting odds to win this Sunday’s race at Kansas, and the following three drivers offer the best value on the early board.
Top Favorite – Chase Elliott +550
Paired with Kyle Busch as third-favorites to win on Sunday behind Martin Truex Jr. and Kevin Harvick at +495 odds, I went with the most desperate of the four when it comes to moving on to the next elimination round. The first three drivers occupy three of the top four sports in the current Cup Series standings, which should be good enough to advance to the final eight drivers in contention for a title. Elliott won the race at Charlotte, driving the No. Chevrolet in the opening elimination round, but he is in 10th place in the standings with 3054 total points and no guarantee of moving on.
The added pressure to win along with his victory in this event last season is enough to make Elliott my top-valued favorite. He has now finished fourth or better in three of his previous four Cup Series events at Kansas.
Top Contender – Kyle Larson +1100
Larson already took advantage of the “win and you advance” rule for this elimination round with his victory at Dover two weeks ago. This ended an extended 75-race winless streak, and it could have opened the door to multiple wins heading down the stretch run of this season’s playoff. His day ended early at Talladega in a wreck, but I expect a much better showing on Sunday. Racing without any pressure to win could work in his benefit.
The primary value in Larson’s odds driving the No. 42 Chevrolet is a solid track record at this week’s venue. Since finishing sixth in the first race here in the 2017 season, he has placed eighth or better in four of his last five runs around the Kansas Speedway oval.
Top Longshot – Alex Bowman +2750
As another playoff driver needing a big effort on Sunday to advance, I am going with Bowman at long odds. He is in eighth place in the updated standings right now, with a total of 3058 points. There are three other drivers just below him on the list separated by just six points. He could probably still qualify with another Top 3 performance, but the only guarantee is taking the checkered flag. The No. 88 Chevrolet was also knocked out of Monday’s race at Talladega in a wreck. This was coming off impressive back-to-back finishes in the top three at Charlotte and Dover.
Combining current form with a second-place finish in the first Cup Series event at Kansas this season, there is quite a bit of value in Bowman’s odds to win. That was his best career finish at this track as he heads into his ninth point race here.
