Talladega has a way of shaking things up, and that is precisely what happened in last Sunday’s race with Aric Almirola upsetting the field with a victory that automatically sends him to the next elimination round of this 10-race playoff. Clint Bowyer turned in a solid run by taking second, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. rounded out the top three on Sunday. I took the bait on Kyle Busch’s long +1650 odds to win as my top-valued pick, but his issues at this track continued with a 26th-place finish.
The following is a look at a trio of the top favorites to win Sunday’s race at Kansas along with my top-valued driver at longer odds to win as provided by 5Dimes Sportsbook.
Hollywood Casino 400 Favorites Kevin Harvick +260
Things return to normal at 5Dimes this week with one of the top Cup Series drivers at the top of the list to win Sunday’s race. Harvick cannot be happy with his performance in this playoff run after winning seven times in the regular season. The No. 4 Ford’s best finish in the first five postseason events was second at Richmond. This team is coming off a 28th-place finish in last Sunday’s race. He is all but guaranteed a spot in the final eight with the most points (3128) in the updated Cup Series standings. The biggest value in Harvick’s odds to win this race comes from an earlier victory this season at Kansas. He also won this Sunday’s event in the 2016 racing season.
Kyle Larson +375
Most of the value in Larson’s odds to win come from the simple fact that the No. 42 Chevrolet has to win this race to keep its title hopes alive. As one of the hottest Cup Series drivers last season, Larson won four times on his way to an eighth-place finish in the final standings. With just three runs in the top five all season long and zero trips to Victory Lane, he finds himself in 11th place in the current standings with 3057 total points. Larson finished fourth in the first race at Kansas this season to add some more value to his odds.
Martin Truex Jr. +475
Last year’s Cup Series Champion is in danger of bowing out of this year’s playoff if things do not go his way on Sunday. He can still advance on total points, but a victory is the only sure-fire way to stay in the race for this year’s crown. His No. 78 Toyota has finished outside the top 10 in its last three races after placing third at Las Vegas and Richmond in the first two playoff events. The one big plus heading into this race is a second-place finish at Kansas earlier in the season. The other is the fact that Truex swept the two-race series at this track in 2017.
