NASCAR’s Cup Series returns to action this Sunday in a big way with the running of the GEICO 500 from fabled Talladega Superspeedway. The green flag for Sunday’s main event is set to wave at 1 p.m. with FOX carrying the race nationally.
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GEICO 500 Value Bets
Heading into last week’s break at the quarter pole of the Cup Series season, Martin Truex Jr. posted his first point-race victory of the year at Richmond. Joey Logano took second in that race, and my top-valued longshot Clint Bowyer at +2100 odds made a run at things by finishing third.
With 5Dimes’ online sportsbook posting the betting odds to win this Sunday’s race, the following three drivers offer the best value on the board.
GEICO 500 Top Favorite – Joey Logano +800
The defending Cup Series Champion is off to a solid start in his title defense with a victory at Las Vegas and four more Top 5 runs with the recent second-place finish at Richmond. Add in 333 laps led and the No. 22 Ford is holding down second place in the current Cup Series standings with 380 total points. This has been one of the more consistent racing teams on the track with six Top 10 runs in the first nine point-race events.
The biggest value in Logano’s odds at a track as wide open as Talladega is the winning edge. He won this event last season as part of his three victories on the year. This was his third trip to Victory Lane since 2015 at a track where wins do not come all that easy.
GEICO 500 Top Contender – Kyle Busch +1150
It is a rare sight to see Busch this far down the list when it comes to betting odds to win. The odds are generally longer at this track, and there are only five other drivers on the board with a lower number. The value in his odds is rather evident given everything the No. 18 Toyota has accomplished to this point of the season. Every run has been inside the Top 10 with a trio of victories and three additional Top 5 runs. Busch has already led 599 laps this year.
The biggest reason for the longer odds in this Sunday’s race is a distant 20.7 average finishing position at Talladega. That number is a bit deceiving given Busch’s third-place finish in this race in 2017 that followed a second-place run the year before. Also, keep in mind that more than a few past wrecks have inflated that average a bit. If he can keep his car on the track, he still has a great chance to win.
GEICO 500 Top Longshot – Martin Truex Jr. +2000
Call this pick ‘riding the hot hand’. The former 2017 Cup Series Champ had been somewhat quiet leading up to the big win at Richmond with just two runs inside the top five in his first eight events. Both did happen to be second-place finishes at Atlanta and Phoenix. Truex followed up his run to the title two years ago with a second-place finish to Logano last season. His No. 19 Toyota racing team is currently in sixth place in this year’s standings with a total of 311 points. Truex dominated the race at Richmond by leading 186 or the 400 laps.
Talladega is not one of his favorite tracks either with an average finishing position of 21.3. Luck has not been on his side in recent runs here with three wrecks and one blown engine in his last five trips around this oval. However, a fast car and current form could change that luck this Sunday afternoon.
