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Monster Energy Series Foxwoods Casino Resort 301 Picks and Race Analysis

By Clayton Duke
Date: 22/07/2018 2:00 pm
Location: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
TV: Fox Sports

NASCAR’s Monster Energy Cup Series heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway this week for the running of the Foxwoods Casino Resort 301 on Sunday afternoon. The green flag is set to wave at 2 p.m. for Sunday’s main event with NBC Sports Network carrying the race nationally.

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Martin Truex Jr. continues to make his presence felt in defense of last season’s Cup Series racing title with last Saturday night’s victory in Kentucky as a +365 second-favorite to win. Ryan Blaney posted another strong showing by taking second, and Brad Keselowski ended up third. I went with Clint Bowyer at longer +1600 odds to win as my top-valued pick, but he faded to 12th after starting eighth.

The following is a look at a trio of the top favorites to win this Sunday’s race in New Hampshire along with my top-valued pick to win at longer odds as provided by 5Dimes

Foxwoods Casino Resort 301 Race Favorites

Kyle Busch +350

It is Busch’s turn to start a race as the top betting favorite on the board after finishing fourth at Kentucky as one of two second-favorites to win. This was his 13th finish inside the top five through the first 19 point races on the 2018 Cup Series schedule. Five of those runs ended with a trip to Victory Lane. The No. 18 Toyota’s dominance this season has the team in first place in the current standings with 799 points. Even more impressive is Busch’s 948 total laps led. His recent track record at New Hampshire also adds value to these odds with two victories and a third-place finish in his last six races here.

Kevin Harvick +400

Harvick was favored to win last Saturday night in Kentucky at +250 betting odds, but he faded to fifth. This was his 14th finish inside the top five this season which also includes five checkered flags. The No. 4 Ford is second in the standings when it comes to total points with 740, and it has led a total of 1,040 laps this year to easily eclipse last year’s 850 laps led for the entire season. Harvick finished fifth in this race last year after winning the second event at New Hampshire in the 2016 racing season. He has finished fifth or better in five of his previous seven trips around this oval.

Martin Truex Jr. +450

With last week’s win at Kentucky, the defending Cup Series Champion continues to close the gap with the two frontrunners with a total of four victories on the year. The No. 78 Toyota is now in third place in the current standings with 689 total points on the strength of nine additional runs inside the top five to go along with those four wins. Truex has now won three of the last six point-race events heading into Sunday’s race. He is still looking for his first career victory at this track in a Cup Series race, but he came close last season with a third-place run in this event followed by a fifth-place finish in the second race.

Get more details: NASCAR Driver vs Driver Matchup

Foxwoods Casino Resort 301 Top Value Pick

The 2012 Cup Series Champion is still looking for his first victory this season, but he still has his No. 2 Ford in prime position for the playoff as the fifth-best driver on the board in total points with 630. Keselowski’s third-place finish last week was his fifth run this year inside the top five, and he has placed inside the top 10 in over half of the first 19 races. The main reason he is my top-valued pick this week is a strong track record at New Hampshire. Keselowski has an average finishing position of 9.8 and starting with a victory in this race in 2014, he has placed ninth or better in six of his last eight runs.

Free Pick: Take Brad Keselowski +1150
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