Moving to the 20th point race of the season, NASCAR’s Cup Series rolls into New Hampshire Motor Speedway for Sunday’s Foxwoods Casino Resort 301. Race time on NBC Sports Network set for 3 p.m.
Foxwoods Casino Resort 301 – Value Bets
The Busch brothers dominated last Saturday night’s race in Kentucky with the elder Kurt edging out Kyle for his first victory of the season. Erik Jones continues to race well with a third-place finish. All three of my top value picks took the night off, including Martin Truex Jr. at +380 odds with a disappointing 18th-place finish in the final running order.
Turning my full attention to Sunday’s race, I have come up with three more value picks based on the posted betting odds to win at 5Dimes online sportsbook.
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Foxwoods Casino Resort 301 Top Favorite – Kevin Harvick +660
Harvick has not only failed to win a point race this season; he has been unable to finish higher than 14th in his last three races. The No. 4 Ford’s last run inside the top five drivers was all the way back in Richmond in mid-April. Recent form tends to drain value from his odds to win this week, but this is still a driver that has won 17 Cup Series events in his last four seasons, including a series-high eight events last year alone.
The reason why I am going with Harvick at New Hampshire is HIS recent success at this track. Since 2014, he has finished in the top five in six of eight races. This run includes a pair of victories in 2016 and last year’s event.
Foxwoods Casino Resort 301 Top Contender – Joey Logano +1100
The current Cup Series Champion remains in an excellent position to defend that title. He has his No. 22 Ford at the top of the current Cup Series standings with 746 points. He is also a lock to make the 10-race playoff to the 2019 title with previous victories at Las Vegas early in the season and more recently at Michigan in early June. After finishing third at Chicago two weeks ago, he remained in the mix last week at Kentucky with a seventh-place run. Logano has nine Top 5 runs through the first 19 point races on the schedule. He has only failed to place inside the top 10 six times this season.
Current form adds quite a bit value to his longer betting odds for this race. His last win in New Hampshire was in 2014. Starting with that race, Logano has placed 10th or better in six of his previous eight Cup Series events at this track.
Foxwoods Casino Resort 301 Top Longshot – Aric Almirola +2750
Longshots have been a very lucrative bet for a Top 3 finish this year. Both Alex Bowman and the relatively unknown Justin Haley have won a race at very long odds in recent weeks. The trick is finding the right longshot to step out of the box and shake up the field. This week, something about Almirola caught my eye. He is still looking for his first win this season with two career Cup Series victories on the resume. The No. 10 Ford only has one Top 5 finish, but it has been competitive with ten runs inside the top 10. This team is 10th in the current standings with 542 total points.
This pick is also based on last year’s success at this week’s venue. Almirola made a strong run at Harvick in that event to finish third as his best career effort here.
