Kevin Harvick clinched a spot in next week’s title race with his victory last Sunday at Texas and Martin Truex Jr. guaranteed his team one of the four places in the field by taking second in that race. Veteran driver Denny Hamlin was able to stay in the hunt for that final championship spot by finishing third; however seven-time champ Jimmie Johnson did little to help this year’s title chances at Texas with a 27th-place finish as my top-valued pick.
The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Sunday’s race at Phoenix along with my top value pick based on betting odds provided by TopBet.
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Can-Am 500 Race Favorites
Kyle Busch nailed down the first spot in the championship field with his recent victory at Martinsville. This was the No. 18 Toyota’s fifth Cup Series victory of the season with three of those winning runs coming in the first eight races of the 10-race playoff. With that kind of track record coming into Phoenix, he has been opened as a +260 favorite to keep things rolling with another trip to the Winner’s Circle this Sunday. He has yet to win a point race at Phoenix over the course of his Cup Series career, but he could be due after finishing fourth or better in his last four trips around this track, including a third-place finish here early in the season.
The second-favorite to win on Sunday has also earned a spot in that final four field with Kevin Harvick listed at +300 odds to take the checkered flag for the second week in a row. The No. 4 Ford has found its championship form at the right time of the year with three runs inside the top five in its last five races capped off by last week’s victory at Texas. Leading up to that win, Harvick’s only other victory this season was on the road course at Sonoma. When it comes to his recent results at Phoenix, he has been downright dominant with six victories in his last 10 trips around this oval. He took fourth in last year’s race and sixth in the first Cup Series event here this year.
As mentioned, Martin Truex Jr. is also guaranteed a spot in the championship field given his current lead in the point standings. While that is an added bonus heading into Sunday’s race, there is some solid value in his +400 betting odds to win given the his motivation to add another trip to Victory Lane to his series-high seven point-race wins this year. The No. 78 Toyota also leads the Cup Series field in total finishes inside the top five with 17 so you can almost guarantee Truex will be right in the mix on Sunday coming down that final lap barring a wreck or engine troubles. The one drain on his odds for this race is an average finishing position of 17.6 at Phoenix.
