NASCAR’s Cup Series will cruise into the famed Brickyard at Indianapolis Motor Speedway this week for the final point race of the regular season. Race time on Sunday afternoon for the Big Machine Vodka 400 set for 2 p.m. on NBC.
Big Machine Vodka 400 Top NASCAR Value Bets
Last Sunday night in Darlington, Erik Jones sealed up his spot in the 16-driver field for this season’s 10-race playoff with his first Cup Series career victory. Kyle Larson outdueled Kyle Busch to fill in the Top 3 for that race. Brad Keselowski was my top-valued favorite to win that race, but he slid to fifth in the final running order.
Turning to Sunday’s race at the Brickyard, the following three drivers offer the best betting value in their odds to win as posted at 5Dimes online sportsbook.
Big Machine Vodka 400 Top Favorite – Kyle Busch +350
I am going chalk with Busch this week as the top favorite coming off a strong effort at Darlington. He has the No. 18 Toyota in an excellent position for this season’s playoff with a series-high 983 points. He is also tied with Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. in Cup Series’ victories with four. Last week’s strong showing was significant for this race team to maintain the consistency it has shown over the past three events. With the exception of an 11th-place run on the road course at Watkins Glen, Busch has been able to finish inside the Top 10 in six of this last seven trips around the track.
When it comes to his recent track record at the Brickyard, this is another factor that adds value to his odds. Back-to-back victories in 2015 and 2016 highlight the Indy resume.
Big Machine Vodka 400 Top Contender – Kurt Busch +1800
I have used Kurt in conjunction with younger brother Kyle a few times this season. The elder Busch is also a lock for the 16-driver playoff with 790 total points and a victory at Kentucky. However, I think the No. 1 Chevrolet remains hungry for another trip to the Winner’s Circle in a very high profile event. The driving record since Kentucky has been a bit spotty, but a trio of Top 10 runs still demonstrates solid form. On the year, this team has five Top 5 finishes as part of 15 runs inside the top 10 drivers.
Busch has gotten more competitive at Indy the past few seasons with an eighth-place finish in 2015 and a sixth-place effort in last year’s race. His main value this week is in the elevated odds to win relative to current form.
Big Machine Vodka 400 Top Longshot – Daniel Suarez +4000
Betting a longshot in the final regular-season race is all about finding a quality driver that is hungry to earn a spot in the playoff field. Jimmie Johnson was an attractive choice at +5000 odds sitting in 18th place in the standings, but his best driving days are clearly in the rearview mirror. Suarez has established himself as an up-and-coming Cup Series driver in his third season with a trio of runs inside the top five. With a total of 617 points, he is currently tied with Ryan Newman for the 16th and final playoff spot. The No. 41 Ford’s strongest effort this season was fourth at Texas, and the team ran exceptionally well at Michigan. Suarez has actually been competitive in his last three events.
This start will be his third career at Indy in a Cup Series race. He finished seventh in 2017 before fading to 18th last season. More than a few breaks are going to have to go his way this Sunday, but sometimes a hunch can be your best handicapping tool.
