Joey Logano has been rather quiet this season, but he made his presence in this title race felt with a victory last Sunday at Martinsville to secure one of the four sports in the season-ending championship race at Homestead-Miami on Nov. 18. Denny Hamlin threw a wrench into things by taking second with Martin Truex Jr. rounding out the top three. Kevin Harvick was my top-valued bet to win at +1300, but he could only manage a 10th-place finish.
The following is a look at a trio of the top favorites to win Sunday’s race at Texas along with my top-valued driver at longer odds to win as provided by 5Dimes
AAA Texas 500 Race Favorites
Kevin Harvick +275
The main reason why Harvick is the top favorite to win this race is that he knows that he has to. Even though the No. 4 Ford racing team is still tied for second in the current Cup Series standings with 4083 total points, he knows that he can leave nothing to chance in trying to finish one of the best seasons of his career with a racing title. Harvick has raced well enough to accumulate the necessary points to rank high in the standings, but there has to be some level of frustration with just one Top 5 finish in the first seven playoff events. That should change at Texas with eight runs inside the top five in his last 10 Cup Series events at this track, including a victory in this race last season.
Kyle Busch +400
Busch is also feeling the heat after slipping to fourth place in last Sunday’s race. He did win at Richmond earlier in this playoff run, but the driver of the No. 18 is also well aware that the only way to ensure this team is in the final four at Homestead-Miami is by winning at Texas this Sunday or at Phoenix next week. He does have somewhat of an advantage over the other six drivers trying to secure a spot with the most points (4104) in the current standings. The main thing adding value to his odds to win this Sunday is a victory in the first Cup Series event at Texas this season. Busch also won the first race here in 2016.
Martin Truex Jr. +450
The defending champ was seeing red at Martinsville last Sunday after getting bumped out of the win by Logano. His No. 78 Toyota is tied with Harvick for second place in the standings, but just like the first two drivers on the list, a win is the only way to guarantee a chance for back-to-back racing titles. He also came close to winning at Kansas by taking fifth after starting the playoff with a pair of third-place finishes at Las Vegas and Richmond. Truex’s string of six-straight Top 10 runs at Texas came to an end earlier this season with a wreck in that first race.
