NASCAR’s Cup Series makes its second trip of the season to fabled Talladega Superspeedway for Sunday’s 1000Bulbs.com 500. This event marks the halfway point of the 10- race playoff to this year’s racing title. Sunday’s main event on NBC is slated to start at 2 p.m. (ET).
1000Bulbs.com 500 – Top Value Bets
Kyle Larson’s extended winless drought came to an end at the perfect time with last Sunday’s victory at Dover. My top-valued favorite Martin Truex Jr. at +350 odds came in second, and Alex Bowman rounded out the Top 3 in that race.
Using posted odds on 5Dimes online sportsbook to win this Sunday’s race at Talladega, the following three drivers would be my top-valued plays.
1000Bulbs.com 500 Top Favorite – Joey Logano +800
The reigning Cup Series Champion has gotten off to a very quiet start in this season’s title run. Driving the No. 22 Ford, his best finish in the first four playoff events, was ninth at Las Vegas. Logano is tied for eighth-place with William Byron in the latest Cup Series standings with a total of 3032 points after finishing a dismal 34th at Dover. He is in real danger of being eliminated from the competition without a significant effort this Sunday and next Sunday at Kansas. The only way to guarantee a spot in the top eight drivers is by winning a race he is favored to win. The stars could align to get that victory despite his current racing form.
Like most of the top NASCAR Cup Series drivers, Logano’s results at this week’s track have been mixed. He managed to take fourth in the first race here this season coming off a fifth-place finish in this race last year. All told, he has been able to stay out of trouble to finish in the top five drivers his previous four trips around this track.
1000Bulbs.com 500 Top Contender – Brad Keselowski +1100
Keselowski is another race title hopeful that needs to pick up the pace over the next two races to guarantee the No. 2 Ford a spot in the eight-driver field for the next elimination round. After finishing inside the top five for the first three playoff races, he slipped to 11th last Sunday at Dover. This has him sixth in the standings with 3052 total points. On the year, Keselowski has three wins and another nine runs inside the top five.
This race could be a breakout week for Keselowski at a track he has raced well over the course of his career. He won this event in 2017 as part of his five career victories at Talladega in a Cup Series event. Win No. 6 on Sunday would be one of the biggest in that successful run.
1000Bulbs.com 500 Top Longshot – Martin Truex Jr. +2750
I know there is a legitimate reason why Truex’s odds to win are so high for this race. Yet, I am taking the bait on a driver that has already won a pair of playoff races at Las Vegas and Richmond ahead of the second-place finish at Dover. Anything and everything can happen at Talladega, and if you avoid enough wrecks throughout the day, you just might find yourself on the lead lap heading down the stretch run of this race. The No. 19 Toyota is in an excellent position to advance to the next elimination round; regardless of what happens in this race. The team is currently in first place in the standings with 3095 total points.
With an average finishing position of 21.3 at Talladega over the course of his Cup Series career, it is easy to see why the top driver in the standings has such long odds to win. For example, Kyle Busch has long +1500 odds at a challenging track to get a win. I am also relying on some luck this Sunday to cash this ticket.
