Kyle Larson posted three-straight second-place runs this season before finally breaking through with a victory last Sunday at Fontana. Brad Keselowski took second this time around and Clint Bowyer turned in his best effort of the season to round out the top three. I stuck with Chase Elliott for the second week in a row as my top valued contender (+1000), but he faded to 10th in that race after briefly holding the lead for four laps.
The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Sunday’s race at Martinsville along with my top value pick based on betting odds provided by 5Dimes.
Race Favorites
Kyle Busch won the Cup Series title in 2015 and he finished a close third in last year’s final standings, but he is one of the sport’s top drivers still searching for some kind of consistency this season behind the wheel of the No. 18 Toyota. He is currently in 12th place in the standings with 136 total points with just one Top 5 finish to his credit over the last five weeks of racing. He is moving in the right direction with a pair of solid runs at both Phoenix and Fontana, but the real value in his +550 odds to win this race lie in the fact that he comes into Martinsville as the defending champion of this event. Busch has now placed fifth or better in five of his last eight point-race events at this track.
Denny Hamlin’s odds to post his first point-race victory of the year are also set at +550. The No. 11 Toyota is currently in 13th place in the standings with 123 total points and its main claim to fame so far is a sixth-place run at Las Vegas. He ended up 14th in last Sunday’s race after placing 10th the week before at Phoenix. The main reason why he is listed so high on this week’s list is a proven ability to successfully navigate Martinsville’s short track format. Along with his four career victories in a point race, his average finishing position sits at a solid 9.2. Hamlin has placed third or better in three of his last four races here.
As mentioned, some of NASCAR’s top Cup Series drivers are still trying to find the racing form needed to not only win a point race, but to keep their team in contention through the early part of the schedule. Jimmie Johnson may be the defending champion, but his first five runs this season have basically been forgettable with a ninth-place finish at Phoenix the best on the board for the No. 48 Chevrolet. If we learned anything about Johnson’s run to last season’s title is that he still has the ability to turn things around on a dime. This adds value to his +650 odds to turn things around this Sunday along with the value in his nine career victories at this track.
