Joey Logano was able to add his name to the list of point-race winners this season with last Sunday’s victory at Richmond in the Toyota Owners 400. Brad Keselowski took second in that race followed by Denny Hamlin in third. I went with Matt Kenseth at +1800 betting odds as my top-valued contender, but he slipped all the way back to No. 23 in the final running order.
The following is a look at a few of the top favorites to win this Sunday’s race at Talladega along with my top value pick based on betting odds provided by 5Dimes.
Geico 500 Race Favorites
It is not a big surprise that Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been opened as a +800 favorite at Talladega given the success he has had over the course of his career in restrictor plate races. He will definitely come into Sunday’s race as a heavy sentimental favorite after recently announcing his retirement from the Cup Series at the end of this season. As far as current form, there is not a lot of value in his odds to win given a dismal start that has resulted in just one finish in the top five for the No. 88 Chevrolet through the first nine point-race events. The one plus was Dale Jr.’s victory in this race in 2015.
Jimmie Johnson is coming off an 11-place finish at Richmond after taking the checkered flag at both Texas and Bristol in his previous two point-race events. He has been listed as a +900 second-favorite to quickly get back to his winning ways. The No. 48 Chevrolet has proven to be very streaky in the past and I do believe that this team’s good fortunes could continue on this track given its current form. The one drain on the defending Cup Series Champ is his recent performance at Talladega. Other than a second-place finish in this race in 2015, Johnson has placed outside the top 10 in his six other trips around this track.
The third-favorite on the board for Sunday’s race is Kevin Harvick at +1000 betting odds. He could be worth a small play simply because he is due to win following a very unusual dry spell. The No. 4 Chevrolet has placed inside the top five in three events this season including a third-place run two weeks ago at Bristol and a fifth-place finish at Richmond so you know this team is getting close. Dragging down the value in these odds is the fact that Harvick has just one career victory at this track in a Cup Series event back in 2010 and his average finishing position here stands at 15.1.
